It’s simple natural selection that the most engaging social media platforms became the most profitable, influential, and popular. There’s no guarantee that VR/AR will have the same selection pressure, and if the tech does have the same selection pressure than whoever wins will be engaging as well.

IMO Facebook creating the metaverse is like Xerox creating the GUI. Most likely the things that made Facebook successfully in social media will not make them as successful in VR/AR and they’ll either pivot hard or (more likely) lose their market leader position.

(I’m holding FB stock until their AR offering is announced, and possibly for a few years afterwards but I’m doubtful I’ll have their stock in 15 years.)