Sure, I was more just using those as colorful analogy to make the possibility easier to understand.

I agree with you that it’s difficult to predict whether inflation will or won’t be transitory and I suspect that if you got Powell to speak honestly about the issue he’d tell you that his confidence in his projection is closer to 2/3 than 99/100.

He does have a lot of quite powerful tools that make it easier for him to be correct, such as expanding the money supply by an unlimited amount and defining the inflation metric.