Comment by PragmaticPulp | Hacker News Reader

Comment by PragmaticPulp | Hacker News Reader

I’ve known a lot of people to say this, only to buy a gas powered vehicle when they realize that Teslas aren’t as cheap as they thought. The price gets even higher when they realize they need to hire an electrician to install a charging station for several thousand dollars.

A Tesla Model 3 base model in white with no options will cost $41K with destination charge and no self-driving. Upgrade to the long range model, any color other than white, and get the self-driving package and you're looking at $60K. That same $60K could buy two Honda Insight hybrids which get 40-50mpg, and you'd still thousands left over. There are cheaper electric cars out there, but it's still tough to compete with economy gasoline cars or even economy hybrids like the Honda Insight.

Road trips are also a hurdle for many. If a family drives 8 hours to visit grandma twice a year but an electric car would require a long charging stop at sparse charging infrastructure, suddenly that gas powered vehicle looks a lot more attractive.

A Model 3 is cheaper over five years than a Camry Hybrid considering total cost of ownership [1].

The cost to install an EV charging station can be as low as $500, but if it does cost more due to having to have your load center/breaker panel replaced, the US government has a 30% tax credit up to $1000 to offset the costs.

The Tesla Supercharger network is extensive [2], and continues to grow by the week; charging at one takes ~20-30 minutes. Other networks with less coverage are available for Teslas (with an adapter) and non-Teslas alike.

It does't hurt that jurisdictions continue to enact deadlines for combustion vehicle bans [3].

[1] https://insideevs.com/features/521424/tesla-model3-camry-hyb...

[2] https://supercharge.info/map

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

If you look closely at your first source, you’ll notice it’s specific to Australia, and assumes Australian prices for gas and electricity, as well a hugely different depreciation for the two cars.

Doing the same math for most American states will punish the Tesla.

US prices for fuel are lower, but so is the cost of electricity in the US. It’s about half the cost per mile to drive an EV vs a light combustion vehicle.

Why is a 5 year cost of ownership relevant when a Toyota has a proven track record of lasting 10 to 20+ years and 200k to 300k+ miles without needing anything other than cheap routine care?

Surely the evidence is stronger for cost per mile and cost per year being lower for a Toyota than a Tesla over the whole lifetime of the vehicle.

Most people own a car no longer than 10-12 years. If governments are phasing out combustion vehicle sales, I don’t see how 20+ year longevity is relevant when the infrastructure to support such a vehicle might not even exist at that point. Gas stations will wind down at some point as consumption tipping points are reached. Bosch in Germany is already preparing to close some facilities that produce ICE specific components.

Why does it matter if they own it or not? They still get the value from a functional vehicle if/when they sell it since the buyer will pay more for it.

It is possible infrastructure for gas will be reduced in 20 years, but I doubt it will be anything noticeable to almost all people with gas vehicles.

As of Mar 2019, percent of electric vehicles sold in US was at 1.8%. That means the majority of fossil fuel cars sold in 2019 will probably be around in some way in 20 years (cars generally last much longer these days).

https://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/electrictransportation/d...

20-30 minute charge time really shouldn’t be held up as a positive for EVs, it’s still dramatically worse than a stop for gas.

Even newer EVs can only charge to 80% range in 30 minutes, while a stop at the gas tank takes about 5 minutes to refuel to 100% range.

I got my Chevy Bolt for 30k. (22.5k with federal subsidy).

If you are taking an 8 hour road trip , it's not a huge stretch to put an 45 min charging session (especially if only twice a year, you're out 90 mins).

This is a highly dynamic market: from rapidly (in some geographies) developing charging infrastructure to EVs becoming nicer, cheaper and with higher range. Two recent news in this regard are quite notable: a) Elon Musk announcing opening Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure to non-Tesla cars later this year and b) Chinese EV manufacturer Xpeng pricing base model of their new sedan P5 at less than $25K (beating Tesla at bringing the price of a solid EV down to that critical level).

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