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> We should assume NSA (and a lot of cryptocurrency nerds) is already monitoring the addresses of those old bitcoin wallets as a canary for someone making such a discovery.

I bet the NSA has better things to do than that, cryptocurrency nerds on the other hand...

As if there aren't a ton of cryptocurrency nerds working at the NSA

It all depends on the amounts I would think. If you take several lower valued old wallets over a larger period of time, I would think you can rake a few million without anyone thinking twice about it. The problem with people trying to hide things is of course that they always get too greedy.

There is plenty of money in new wallets and plenty of plausible deniability from insider threats, bad RNG, and compromise.