No, it's winning because RedHat is forcing everyone's hand by hiring most of Linux desktop developers, and the rest are insufficient to maintain other solutions to keep feature parity.

It's Embrace Extend Extinguish in action, except by using the force of running two biggest distributions in addition to GNOME project. (And a bunch of others depending directly on them.) Even Debian was unable to weather all the dependencies using the new interfaces. Gentoo tries still with OpenRC, more or less successfully.