China Wants a Chip Machine from the Dutch. The U.S. Said No

It's bad for ASML to have a competitor long term. And if a competitor is inevitable, then it's in ASML's interest to maximize profits for as long as possible, which involves selling machines to China and reinvesting profits into R&D to stay ahead of curve.

There's also fact that ASML has been very successful at mitigating IP theft from similar IP bad actors like South Korea who has tried but failedto reverse engineer ASML machines for 10+ years. ASML probably confident it will be extremely difficult for China to reverse engineer their EUV machines. If semi equipement is anything like turbojet engines, merely possessing the equipment doesn't lead to rapidly developing capabilities.

When US claims "This is in our mutual national-security interest", the calcus is really:

* Low ASML risk exposure to PRC replicating ASML EUV equipment.

* Significant US risk exposure to PRC having >7nm fabs that compete with US chipmakers.

Ergo US sanctioning ASML EUV exports to PRC primarily protects incumbant US chip makers from new PRC competitors short/medium term, while also undermining ASML profitabilty and long term viability by incenvitiving PRC to build an EUV competitor. PRC was not seriously looking at entirely indigenous semi supply chain prior to chip wars. Now it's one of the highest priority. The sanctions disportionately fucks over ASML for US interests. Which is inevitable / fair considering ASML depends on US tech like Cymer anyway. But the interest is not really mutual.

There is a buyer and there is a seller anyone intervening between this trade is just an actor dirupting the rules of the market. IP doesnt work if it could China wont have so much technology in Semiconductors that it has. Now they will acquire this technology through other means without any gain to the dutch maker. Must i remind you Taiwan's political status is currently ambiguous, and it wont take too long for china or its spies to be working in TSMC to be leaking the plans.