Poll: 1.8M Americans have turned down jobs due to unemployment benefits
axios.com
axios.com
Respondents could select more than one reason; it could be that many of these people had a more important reason for turning down the job like "child care obligations" or "the job didn't offer enough hours of work", but also selected "I receive enough money from unemployment" because that was one of the secondary factors they considered.
They also only polled 463 people and are extrapolating the 1.8 million number based on the fact that 13% (~60 people) included "unemployment insurance" as one of the factors that influenced their decision.
https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and...
I guess that plays a HUGE role. Like, if you will be working only part-time, with a low wage, no benefits, earning the same (or less) than the unemployment benefit doesn't seem enticing.
463 people drawn from population of 14 million, assuming unbiased sampling, with a 13%/87% split on their answers to a yes/no question would have a confidence interval of about 3 at 95% confidence, so it is reasonable to conclude that the correct percentage is probably in the 10-16% range, or 1.4 million to 2.2 million.
At 99% confidence, the confidence interval would be about 4, giving 1.26 to 2.38 million.
It seems like the people that have the highest risk of unemployment payouts pay the least (in taxes or premiums), which is not how insurance works.
But I think it's reasonable to assume (though I'd be interested in a study on this), that over a lifetime a person will have paid for all of its unemployment benefits.
You can't be on unemployment forever, and you can't just go on it year over year, because there is a minimum amount of wage/work-hour you'll need to meet to be able to go back on unemployment if you're laid off again and have expired your allocated benefits (as I understand).
That means that any worker going on unemployment can only get so much benefits per amount of time working or wages accrued.
That's why I think over a lifetime, most people pay-back all of their benefits.
The answer to the question makes it clear that the money is a disincentive to work, which is not what the 'insurance' is for.
It's not a pool you pay into and claim from 'because you can' - you claim it 'if you must'.
If someone claimed insurance 'because they could, not because they must' in most scenarios we'd call it fraud.
So yes - collect if you must, but then the answer to the question should be 0% for those implying that the benefit is a disincentive to return to work.
Would you take any job even if it pays less and has worse conditions then the one your were laid off from?
Would you take any job no matter what? Even it it has terrible work conditions and doesn't even pay as much as your employment insurance?
Would you take any job that pays more then your current unemployment even if it doesn't interest you in the slightest or seems to have bad conditions?
Would you take any job that seems a good fit for you long term, that interests you, seem to offer conditions you find reasonable, and pays better than your current unemployment?
Would you take the opportunity to train yourself in something new so that you can find work in new domains that might pay better and have less chance of being laid off again in the future?
Which of these would you consider "cheating" the unemployment insurance and which would you say is "in the spirit" of what it's suppose to afford you as a person recently laid off?
Also, on the topic of how long, the benefits in most state end after around 26 weeks, so there is a hard cut off that was chosen for some reason. I guess you could argue to make it shorter or longer, but I think that needs answering my previous question about what is "in spirit" and what isn't so we can set the right length of time given that.
If that is what the current state of society demands. Yes, absolutely. We could change it but there is a reason why things are the way they are and they have absolutely nothing to do with calm and rational thinking.
Doesn't that mean taking on serious debt? Maybe people are reluctant to do that in a difficult economic situation. Not to mention there are other ways to gain skills other than going to a university.
People simply might not take what is likely a physically demanding job if the compensation isn’t sufficiently high.
There can be also other reasons like the fact that they might be looking for a better opportunity and not simply taking on any job.
Other things like the hidden cost of having a job which can include things like commuting costs, loss of other employment opportunities like part time jobs or side gigs or added costs due to having to pay for child care can also be a good reason why one might not take a job even if it does pay above minimum wage and even above the local living wage.
Unemployment benefits are designed to pay less than what people earned during their recent employment. Traditionally, it wouldn't make sense for someone to turn down a job offer in favor of unemployment unless the new job offer had drastically lower compensation than their previous job.
The pandemic unemployment assistance change this with additional $300/week payments, but that still adds up to less than typical entry-level wages in many locations.
This isn't really about jobs not paying people enough to survive. The survey responses included "I receive enough money from unemployment insurance without having to work" and a separate response for "I was not given enough money to return to work" with similar response rates.
But that's assuming someone would be working full time, right? When I was working on a restaurant (as dishwasher), I wouldn't get more than 20 hours in a week, usually around 15 hours iirc
Employers are competing with the government to buy people's time, and the government is willing and has the means to push the price to infinity.
A business has a number of levers to pull if they want to suppress wages; outsourcing (nationally and internationally) is usually the primary means. How do you suggest we increase the value of people's time without the Government setting the floor? (not to say the Government is the only way - just 'A' way).
But it's also impossible to pay them $10k a month. It's literally not mathematically possible. It's not a case of greed. The profit margins simply aren't fat enough. Around me, they're paying $15 to $16 an hour which is pretty generous and about what I'm making right now.
At the end of the day, there is a huge shortage of labor. We know this because the workforce participation rate is at multidecade record lows. You can tell employers just to pay more, but it's not going to solve the fundamental issue. That's like trying to resolve the housing crisis by telling home shoppers to simply pay more and then wringing your hands of it.
I think it's amazing that all the free market advocates don't want a free market for labor. If employers want more employees, they simply have to pay more.
Workforce participation is at a low because workers in low paying jobs have looked around and realized their jobs suck, are low paying, and are looking to change to a better career.
Lotta folks done or are in process of exactly that. I know folks who learned or improved various computer skills during the lockdown time and now have zero plans of goin' back to their crappy job from before.
My brother is fully disabled and unable to work, and he gets $1,200.
Most the jobs they can't fill are 24 hours per week 8-12 bucks an hour slog fests for the not so princely sum of 800-1200 whereas people are getting paid 2500 in unemployment benefits NOT full time jobs paying substantially more than unemployment.
Your concerns are fanciful.
Imo after all taxes, a lot of 40 hr/wk salaries are a meaningless gain over $2500
https://www.irs.gov/forms-pubs/new-exclusion-of-up-to-10200-...
Also, don't know if it's still going on now but when all these extra federal unemployment payments started, they were an extra $600 per week no matter how much state unemployment you qualified for. So, e.g. if you were a student who worked 10 hr/week part time, you received an extra $600/wk on top of your state money (which wouldn't be much because you worked so few hours).
https://www.dol.gov/coronavirus/unemployment-insurance#:~:te....
Unemployment insurance was a godsend for desperate full-time service workers who lost their jobs in the pandemic, but it was also an insane boondoggle for part timers.
How on earth did we just just dropped all pretense at being civic?
And also: "It's also obvious what employers need to do if they are short-staffed."
That's actually not obvious. Have you owned a small business? Like a cafe, especially through a pandemic? Do they just have magic pools of profit from which to pay people more? Some places do, but usually they're the big chains. These kinds of situations just push regular owners further downhill vis-a-vis the Starbucks down the street which some might argue is 'good for efficiency' but I'd argue that we lose in choice and authenticity quite a lot.
Take a fake employee named Susan. Presently you pay her $12 an hour for an average of 24 hours per week. In a normal month Susan receives 4 weekly paychecks for a grand total of 1152 before taxes or deductions with which to pay per bills.
Susan is serving you a plate of food for $15
Now imagine you raised her wages to $14.40 and offered her full time. Her wages are now 2304. She is making twice as much money and now the food sadly must cost... $15.90.
But you say Susan doesn't want to work full time she has other responsibilities, other jobs for example!
This is because you and your industry have specialized in each paying Susan to run around between her 2-3 jobs so she can afford to live so she can get enough hours to live without any of you having to pay benefits. It could also be because your industry pays too little for anyone to afford to live so you have collected workers who have lesser need because for example they are spouses of well paid workers earning supplemental income. As the cost of living rises faster than incomes this isn't a stable equilibrium. Even Sam spare time may find he needs to earn more to live and if Sam moves on to a real job, graduates college, moves out of his parents home etc you can't be sure you can replace him at your less than survival wage.
The service industry isn't a benefit to America its a diseased kidney and if the entire industry as it is died not much of value would be lost.
"companies you could fill those labor hours trivially by making existing staff full time drastically increasing their wages" ?
So the company will 'trivially' have 2x more revenue to be able to offer everyone full time jobs?
While raising prices by 'only 6%' - you understand how Supply and Demand works?
You are the one paying for those services. If you were willing to pay any material amount more, there'd be higher wages.
In addition to Supply and Demand you have 'competitiveness' - service industries run on razor thin margins not by choice (!!), it's the nature of competition.
By having tons of illegal workers, willing to work for less, you guarantee lower wages.
The #1 driver of low wages in America is essentially illegal migration, which is encouraged by the same people who want higher wages.
But all of this is moot: It's immoral (and probably illegal) to collect unemployment benefits if you can be working. In addition, smaller service industry companies cannot afford to pay substantially more, and they will be hit much harder by 'worker subsidies' than Starbucks across the street who will put them out of business.
Supply and demand pushes a market towards an equilibrium state it isn't gravity the market is still made up of human choices. It doesn't constrain you to a specific set of decisions. Don't base your argument on economics if you don't understand economics.
Just because you have chosen to value a labor hour at $11 an hour and a burger at $14.99 doesn't mean its fate. You CAN pay more and you can charge more and because wages aren't most of your labor costs the price doesn't rise linearly with the cost of labor.
This is also complete bubkis
"The #1 driver of low wages in America is essentially illegal migration, which is encouraged by the same people who want higher wages."
Please feel free to back it up.
Millions of managers and CEOs will be ever grateful for that deep insight they couldn't otherwise fathom themselves ... if only they could read HN!
Or maybe we can assume 'They Have Thought of That' and that it's a dynamic already in play. Obviously.
"Supply and demand ... It doesn't constrain you to a specific set of decisions. Don't base your argument on economics if you don't understand economics."
If you understood economics, you would realize they fundamentally constrains your choices. They are literally 'the biggest constraints'.
Small businesses are competitive, and generally keenly aware of what their margins and pricing pressures are. If they could magically create worker stability with a simple price increase -> wage increase function, they'd do it.
Raising prices by 6% across the board is not a solution to anything, it's just inflationary.
FYI California has 3 million illegal aliens [1]. That's about 8% of the population. If you consider that they have no benefits, are slightly younger, they're more likely to be working, that's a 'very solid and probably greater than 12% of the labour market'. Given that they are likely in the lower income bracket, it's probably well more than 20% of working class jobs.
That's a massive proportion and it will fundamentally affect prices for everything.
California's wealth is derived as much from illegal labour practices, paying illegal wages, and illegally not providing worker benefits.
The surpluses go into the pockets of every Californian in the form of cheap prices all the way through the value chain.
A solution could be to work very hard to ensure that every business was ruthlessly enforcing labour standards, wages, conditions and benefits. But that would price those illegal workers out of the market (the only reason they are employed is because they are very inexpensive) and they'd likely have to return home - or be permanent wards of the state. Hence the giant and obvious hypocritical paradox of the California economy.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_Uni...
" Don't base your argument on economics if you don't understand economics."
Nobody is interested in you proving that minimum wage is the primary force driving down pay by virtue of you making up the numbers for what portion of the labor force immigrants make up and then concluding since its a really big number of workers it MUST have the effect you describe and then busting out the wikipedia entry on illegal immigration.
This isn't moving the discussion forward.
If you want to avoid a billion businesses paying shitty wages for mostly unnecessarily part time jobs the path forward is simple.
Increase minimum wage and make it a function of total dollars AND hourly. The greater of 600 per week or 15 per hour. Make it expensive to rely on part timers. Meanwhile we can make benefits especially health benefits not the employers problem by rolling out universal health care.
Everyone's costs WILL go up but they will go up evenly and if we end up with a few less Taco bells the world will probably be a better not a worse place.
right, businesses are all malign and evil, and they could raise their prices by 6% (without losing any business), but they just haven't, because they prefer to... have an excuse to pay less?
> But you say Susan doesn't want to work full time she has other responsibilities, other jobs for example!
any of my staff who didn't want to work full-time usually wanted to spend more time with their kids. or take classes.
Let's assume that the reason you'd supposedly lose business with higher prices is due to competition not raising their prices. If you're struggling to find workers such that you have to raise prices to cover better wages, then it stands to reason your competitors are in the same boat, so either they keep struggling due to lack of labor or they raise their prices to match. Alternatively, they have a much more efficient business than you and you should go under anyway. Nobody owes you a successful business.
Now let's assume that the reason you'd supposedly lose business with higher prices is due to people not being willing to pay that much for your product. Well, if your business revenue can't even afford to pay the labor that keeps it running than your business is a failure and should go under. Nobody owes you a successful business.
I absolutely do not subscribe to the idea that the purpose of society should be to ensure there are enough desperate people to fill labor positions for untenable businesses.
Your moral impetus isn't an important factor in trying to understand underlying dynamic of the situation.
There's a basic operating competitive dynamic going in small business & services that is almost as old as time, or at least it goes back to even before antiquity before we even had the language to describe the economics of it all.
Huge swaths of the economy operate on this basis.
Most small business owners are not particularly rich, and if you add up the risk premium they take on, they're probably not that far ahead at all, if at all.
Wages are what they are due to input costs (including labour) beyond their control.
They have no market power and they are 'price takers' not 'price setters'.
There's generally no situation in which they can magically raise wages and give longer hours as the OP fantasized.
The only thing they can do is hope to be especially prudent, intelligent, conscientious and of course lucky.
Larger entities & chains (i.e. Starbucks) probably could raise wages a bit. Regulations such as minimum wage will obviously have an affect but have side effects. And of course large pools of illegal migrants who's presence hugely skews the above board market for labour (this is major factor in Texas and Cali).
No, but I read the implication of all this whining about business having small margins and not being able to find workers as a call to action to, well, intentionally make people's situation more desperate so they'll work shitty jobs for shitty pay so these business owners can make more money.
> Most small business owners are not particularly rich, and if you add up the risk premium they take on, they're probably not that far ahead at all, if at all.
How is this my problem? They started a business, they accepted the risk, it's their problem.
If allowed they will continue to do this until they go out of business then insist that the government destroyed their business. Then the banks will lend more money to the next round of idiots who will happily do the same.
Also - you say 2 million is OK... what if it were 20 mil, 200 mil who got paid while not working. Who would pay for this?
Well, the workers who are now unemployed paid these taxes when they were employed. So no, it was not free. It works like insurance. Having insurance is a good thing. I agree it should not encourage people to not work forever, but it is not like unemployment benefits are generous. They are bare bones payments.
When it becomes clear that there aren't enough hands on deck (or at desks, or in factories) to "keep the lights on" then we can say there's a problem.
Until then, it's good for people to have more financial independence and be able to find a job that doesn't treat them like cattle.
As you mention, this breaks down when you take it to an extreme (eg. 200 mil). But that's not where we are and nor is it where we're headed so I don't see the equivalence.
The first: For the past several months, I've been feeling the effects of supply chain disruptions in my normal purchases of consumer goods. Employment and production fell through the floor while demand in various things went through the roof. From that alone, I'd say we're approaching, if not already in the early stages of not enough hands on deck.
The second: I am probably misuing the word, but for lack of knowing a better one, I'd say there is a hysteresis between policy and other inputs which shape employment and production levels, and how acutely the positive and negative effects of employment and production levels are felt by the population, and the shape of this hysteresis curve is not well understood or characterized. That is to say, economic policy could be set such that production in fact will not meet or exceed demand, but the economy will not reach that state for a while, and we'll have a period where things seem to be just fine, until all of a sudden, holy shit, they're not, what the hell happened. So when inflation has been relatively steady over the past several years, and now over the past months we find ourselves in an increasing rise, perhaps we should start paying attention now, while policy inputs that are less likely to overshoot us into deflation are still an option.
> The U.S. Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance program is funded through unemployment insurance taxes paid by employers and collected by the state and federal government. The taxes are part of the often-discussed payroll taxes all employers pay
And in order to claim from it, you must have had enough contribution to it yourself, indirectly through your prior employers.
The amount you receive from it is then proportional to how much you've indirectly contributed to it.
Edit: Okay, to be fair there is a small amount that is indirectly paid from taxpayer, that's because employers who pay on time get a small tax break themselves, so indirectly it means the government budget will need to ask more of other taxpayers since those employers get a small break:
> Employers pay federal taxes of 6 percent on the first $7,000 in annual income earned by every employee. Employers who pay on time get a tax break at 5.4 percent
But this is pretty minimal, and it's in the form of a tax deduction.
Edit2: Also, at a higher level, it isn't unreasonable to argue that technological advancement and the overall increase in production efficiency and productivity gains could go towards allowing a certain amount of people not to work at all, and others to work less. You just need to change your perspective from thinking that people are motivated to work only from loss, and that actually a lot of people would be motivated to work from gains. For example, instead of thinking people only work in order not to starve, you can start to think people would work in order to afford better quality food. Or that instead of working for not getting rained on, people would be motivated to work for affording a much bigger home with a bigger tv, and a pool.
You can tell that many people are actually motivated to work for these added gains, look at how many rich millionaires and billionaires still work full work weeks.
So for this, the question would be, did we make enough progress in efficiency and productivity that we could have all work be motivated from gains, and no longer need any of it be motivated from loss?
This system can then be constantly adjusted to the current levels of efficiency and productivity and what it can afford.
So the idea is you'd see how much of the negative incentives you can eliminate for work.
Can we avoid having anyone forced to work because if they didn't they would die? Can we avoid having anyone forced to work because if they didn't they'd be homeless? Etc.
Obviously, I'm Canadian, and so you'll see that I'm biased in this model, since it's somewhat the Canadian model. But I'll give an example of the tuning, because you can tune this to quite the granular levels if needed. Universal healthcare for example is a way to say: Can we avoid having anyone forced to work because if they didn't they would die from disease or injury or old age? And the granular tuning allows us to even do things like make it dependent on the specific disease, injury, etc. You can do that by tweaking what gets covered and to what extent. Maybe we can't afford to treat fully people to really expensive treatment, and so these people would still be forced to find ways to pay for it and thus work. Etc.
If unemployment covers cost of living better than a low wage, no benefit, long or odd hours job where in summer you need childcare and your own transportation then that job can be expensive or even more costly than having no income/unemployment at all.
A lot of commenters on here seem to miss that a good chunk of the nation makes under $10 an hour (<$20k/year) without benefits vs median CS/IT work at $60k+ depending on the state plus benefits. You can't label a segment of the economy "essential" then attack low wage workers for not wanting to contribute to the same economy that screws then six ways from Sunday.
You know, there is a free lunch in the sense that there is no point in increasing productivity when you have already saturated demand and therefore increasing demand (even through artificial means) allows increases in productivity to become viable again. We've seen it with slavery and societies with a huge lower class. The middle class and above don't value labor because it is so plentiful and therefore don't use it efficiently and end up wasting it on useless things. Zombie companies are the extreme case of this. You have so many "useless" people working on bullshit jobs that you can have entire "useless" companies!
"It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing." - some dude
What society would that be? It certainly isn't the US. Starvation is virtually unknown in the US.
The largest groupd said child care, followed by COVID, and 4th was health limitations are keeping them off.
Also almost as many (at #5) said "I was not given enough money to return to work", which feels like the same thing?
And way, way more people had other reasons like "didn't allow remore work" and "required too many hours" (which also kind of feels the same?)
That made me chuckle. If it were the US, I think it would have to read, 'Which effectively makes it a wealth transfer "for a good cause" so people will vote against it.'
Or at least, a large number would, and the checks and balances put a heavy thumb on the side of "no". So in fact a majority of people would likely vote for it, but it still would not happen.
We're in the run up to an election now so lots of extravagant promises being made, we'll see what actually happens when the dust settles.
A lot of Asian countries already do this.
If I made $9 or even $15 an hour at a day care center, you can be sure I wouldn't give a fuck about the kids.
So, yeah, this isn’t actually a form of insurance.
Firstly, the additional federal dollars are paid for by the federal government, not the states. That is printed money.
Secondly, the federal government also paid large portions of unemployment in assistance to the states - something it also did in 2008.
First of all, do the payments alone support the program, or does it need cash infusions from taxes or money supply increases? How much would the premiums be if it was self-supporting?
Second, are those making higher premium payments (when you also account for the money infusions) at proportionally higher risk of payouts? What factors should be considered in the premium payment?
The capacity for a government to run essential services at a loss is a long standing component from even the US founding fathers. Hamilton wanted to adopt all debt from the colonies as a way to consolidate credit, unite the colonies financially, and put stock into the federal government with power to manage the nations debt vs individual states. Jefferson was against the policy but it (and other Hamilton drafted plans like a central bank) were approved through compromise.
Sure, it can run at a loss. Maybe that's a public service. But I asked some questions that merit an answer if you want to call it insurance rather than, say, social security or something.
I was just talking to someone about their father in the 70s having two cars, a 3 BR middle class house, and annual vacations as a postman. The bottom has dropped out of the buying power of American wages in the last 50 years.
No they are not. How do people even come up with this idea? The official CPI is 5% which is exactly where it should be. Even if you change how they are calculated it doesn't change anything except make it harder to do proper monetary policy. Keeping inflation down doesn't even make any logical sense because interest rates depend on how close you are to full employment rather than the current level of inflation. Inflation tends to be a useful indicator for full employment in normal times but we know the exact opposite is happening right now.
If anything central banks want higher inflation because the zero lower bound restricts the influence of monetary policy and persistently low inflation and deflation requires unconventional monetary policy which has a huge track record of failure. Getting off the bad monetary policy requires that evil inflation that so many people fear. It's kind of funny. All that "hyperinflation" in stocks, housing and Bitcoin is actually the result of low inflation.
You obviously have an opinion on it which of course you're entitled to, but unless I'm misreading, the tone of your message is that the CPI is obviously calculated correctly and there's no controversy surrounding it.
From what I have seen there definitely is, here is just one example from Forbes, but if you're interested in digging there are a lot of qualified opinions on this out there.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2013/06/24/the-m...
The poll lists a dozen reasons that 9%-14% ticked as reasons turning for down job offer. Third is benefits. Conspicuously missing is "salary too low " or "expect/hope for a better offer soon." Surely, those are also normal reasons for turning down job offers.
IDK what the true "story" is here, but regardless... this does not necessarily sound bad to me. "Hard to find employees" is much better than "hard to find jobs." They are basically opposites. If there are no jobs, employees are plentiful. If jobs are plentiful, employees are not.
Why shouldn't we want a bull market for labour? What's the next concern, "salary increases?"
As one of the Americans who can work and chooses to work, I can inform you that our patience is limited.
Do you apply this logic to rich people and taxation as well?
No.
Money is power and too much power gathered in too few hands is a recipe for a disaster. You may consider me as something of a radical since if I had any real power to implement policy, there would be an upper bound to what you can own ( say 3 Hawaian islands ).
I do not consider some poor sap trying to decide whether it is a better thing for him to get $cheap_food as a result of unemployment or minimum wage job an issue of the same magnitude. In fact, their only nexus is that they happen to involve money.
Since you obviously _dont_ think that's the case, then it becomes a question of whether this is detrimental to society, not whether it's prima facie justified just because it's in each individual's personal interests.
Your statement >> This is the logical conclusion to your statement: that someone making a personally beneficial decision can and should not be considered detrimental to society.
Based on the above it would appear that you assumed a conclusion that happens to include benefit to society. That I did not state. What I did say, however, is that I find it mildly amusing that in a country where individualistic approach to life if not, dare I say it, selfish as a celebrated norm, the moment the situation happens to benefit the little guy, out of the woodwork come people bemoaning that someone is not making nearly as much as they did before. Forgive me while I do not shed to many tears in the process.
But even if I assume your assertion that it logically follows that "that someone making a personally beneficial decision can and should not be considered detrimental to society."( and clearly do not think it does ). The two situations are diametrically different in scope, its societal impact and the way we would attempt to correct it.
In other words, the problem is scale.
The luxury of not working and able to decline jobs must be really great. In my twenty five years of work, I don’t think I’ve be ever been so privileged. To other people have this flexibility? Between kids and health insurance I’ve fought like hell to minimize time between jobs.
I am pleased that this money supports others who are less lucky than I was.
I enjoy living in a society where most people are adequately paid without having to work excessive hours, where medical care is easy, simple, and cheap to access, where losing one's job does not turn one into a second class citizen.
Excessive hours, more than 50 hours a week for more than a few weeks, are in fact illegal.
I enjoy it when the person selling me smiles simply because they are happy instead of because it is a requirement of the job.
In case you are wondering the society in question is Norway. No it's not paradise, just a bit closer than some places and that is to a significant extent because of a greater degree of solidarity.
I can say the exact same thing about his position or yours except you don't have one
All these guys throwing around terms like "free lunch" and "they're so privileged", but turn the tables slightly and it's all just so disheartening?
But it is asinine to compare a $300/mo tax credit towards an investment that will pay rich dividends (kids grow up and pay taxes to fund your public benefits in old age and contribute to scientific and medicinal advancement that benefit you after you're old enough to be a net burden on society) vs $1200+ a month in unemployment for an adult who is now disincentivized to do anything productive and could always just go live in the wilderness if they couldn't earn currency.
His interpretation was outrageous so my response was a bit flippant.
There are plenty of legitimate arguments for or against these benefits, but calling it a free lunch and saying you work hard and have kids so this needs to stop is just stupid, how does having kids and you not having the flexibility you wanted matter? That is exactly what he said...
Even now in my mid-30s, when I was laid off for covid I waited until the expanded benefits were almost exhausted for the exact same reason (I actually made about 20 dollars more per paycheck on unemployment during the pandemic than I did at the Digital PM job I was let go from).
The term "fun-employment" is frequently used for people who have negligible difference in quality of life between employment/unemployment.
The cost to raise a child is estimated to be about $250,000, and the average amount a person will pay in taxes is $340,000.
By my calculation that is a $90,000 "free lunch" to society with the investment to make that largely born by the parent. The people actually getting the "free lunch" are those who don't have children, but benefit from the investment made by parents.
1- It's short term and even the level of payment is inconsistent. 2- People being put into this situation come from a multitude of existing economic situations, with no proper controls. Also, nobody is actually able to "opt in" (since you couldn't quit your job and collect UI in many places)
We still have no idea what a widespread, long-term UBI program would look like or its effect, even after studying this. (though of course people on both sides of the debate will take the situation as proof that they were right).
No, its (another, of many) experiment with exactly the kind of system UBI is defined in opposition to.
* U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
* U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
* U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
* U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
* U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
* U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
Seems obvious to me.
For all the people saying this is a bad thing I invite you to quit your high paying tech job, give away all your savings and possessions, move to a fly-over state and get a blue collar job or two.
It's not the same, but around here people list a 5x/week dog walk at $60/hour (what?!). I'm not sure what they are earning to validate that expense but even at half that hourly cost I would save more money quitting my job than sending even one kid to childcare during work hours.
Also, you've worked for this benefit, it isn't given to you "for free", your prior work contributed to the unemployment benefit which you are now using, and your future work will also go back to paying for it.
Maybe, these jobs are just in need of some innovation/disruption.
Or simply better payment.
Business owners (who are usually ardent capitalists) will whine about how that's not fair and sprinkle in some nonsense about how good hard work is. To them I say, "If this is the game you wanna play, then play it."
In other words, even if he offered more than unemployment benefits, it's worth it to take the lesser amount and work 0 hours per week than take the higher income but have to put in 40 hours.
The government isn't willing to do this. It's only willing to offer an extra $300/week for 26 weeks.
Why do you believe the government is willing to push the price to infinity? How would that benefit them?
If I was making that amount and not working, and you said here's $5000 a month for a full time job, I wouldn't take your offer because giving up 40 hours of my life per week is not worth the extra $1000.
How exactly can this be handwaved? It's extremely difficult to compete with that. One market participatant is pushing the price of time to infinity.
If one competitor (the gov) has unlimited capital and requires near-zero expenditure from the recipient, and there's no way for other "competitors" to obtain unlimited capital then it's a rigged game. Hell, it's not even a game because you're comparing apples to oranges.