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There is absolutely no guarantee of this.

You really underestimate. Even standard entry-level developers are under NCAs, and I've had a former colleague (who was certainly "typical", and an additional $200k would have been life changing for them) who was hit with one. I have many other colleagues (again, just "typical" people) who lost out on job offers because the new company didn't even want to deal with the threat of an NCA.

I had a non-compete when I was making $50k

And did the company invoke it?

If they didn't want to invoke it, they wouldn't have put it in the contract.

Would you sign a contract that says I have the right to point a gun at you at all times, with only my unofficial assurances that I won't pull the trigger?