I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. EVs are getting cheaper and cheaper, and they’re much simpler to own and maintain. The next gas shock will probably tip more people over to ditching gasoline too.
Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet.
>they’re much simpler to own and maintain
Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs...
Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.
Many non-treehugger analysts are projecting upfront price parity is expected by ~2025 without subsidy. Coupled with lower fuel and maintenance costs the adoption curve will really take off at that point. Will they be for everyone at that point? No. By 2035? Seems likely they will be for the vast majority of people, my guess is there will need to be some option for plugin hybrids for some.
$30K is cheaper than the average new car being sold right now by quite a bit, and most consumers get a loan to buy those. It seems more than a little bit strange to complain about a $30K EV being expensive when the average new car buyer is taking out a $40K loan for a gasoline car.
> Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist.
Outside the big cities everyone has a garage. People also regularly overestimate how much they drive. The average American drives about 30 miles a day, you need to be in the top 1-2% of daily drivers[0] for range to be an issue, especially if you can charge at work.
> Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet.
Bulk freight by road is a stupid way to organize a society. Don't make semi-trucks green, use trains. They're far more efficient, have cheaper and longer lasting infrastructure, and are trivial electrify. Semi truck transit represents a massive handout to the semi truck industry in the form of unpaid road maintenance[1], we should stop that.
For smaller inner-city transit, we're getting very close. EV pickup trucks are already coming out, I would expect cargo vans to show up soon.
> Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs...
I said that it was simpler to maintain and you replied with a link about it whether or not it is cheaper. Those are different words that mean different things.
Yes, EVs are not yet universally cheaper than ICE cars for all use patterns, but that appears to be almost entirely a factor of the purchase price, which is dropping year over year. EVs are lower maintenance (the link you provided backs this up), and cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars (your link also shows this). Given how quickly EVs have dropped in up front purchase price, I think we're really close to EVs being a no-brainer decision for most consumers.
> Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.
I hope gasoline gets expensive enough and EVs get cheap enough to change your mind.
0 - https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php
1 - Estimates range from 60 to 120 billion dollars per year. This includes congestion, accidents, and most importantly road damage. The wear that a vehicle causes to a road is proportional to the per-axle weight raised to the fourth power, which means that virtually all damage to public roads are caused by semi trucks and semi trucks alone.
That may be true in the US and other countries dominated by suburbs (Australia?). However, I can't see that happening that quickly in dense cities in Europe - the cities just won't install millions of chargers required along all streets where people park quickly enough.
As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?
And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...
An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.
It would not make financial sense to ever replace the battery. It is better to just get another EV when I can no longer get out of my driveway :)
People don't drive that many km everyday and an old Leaf is an okay second car to quite a lot of people. Anyway, it's just an example because the first gen Leaf is an old car with a low range and a battery with a high degradation. If you think about newer leafs and other cars with more range, it's not really a huge difference if the car has lost some range over time.
https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/st...
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-ar...
Throwaway cars aren't good for anyone.
I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill.
If they start building them into the body that may change though.
Battery should last about a million miles though, with proper temperature and charge management.
Once your battery has degraded to, say, 75%, now you have a free 35kWh battery to store power in your house, that's worth $3500
Batteries are not that cheap in 50kWh quantities.
I suggest you avoid Tesla if you are the type of person to drive a car until the wheels fall off.
More of a right to repair issue than an EV issue.