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The bond "market" is dominated by Fed purchases (with money created out of fresh air), to keep borrowing costs low (aka QE). They are following the BoJ, which now owns around 70% of all government bonds. This charade can continue for a while longer, but what happens when governments own 100% of their own debt and all mortgage debt (MBS in the US)?

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Instead of relying on my own "ideas" on economics, a field I have no training in, I would simply stick to one of the two sources cited here for inflation predictions:

" There are two popular methodologies for predicting inflation. The first is to rely on the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the oldest US survey of macroeconomic forecasts by economists, and the second is to rely on the breakeven rate, the spread between the US Treasury yield and the yield for TIPS, as a measure of market expectations."

https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/on-inflation?e=3cd9e40509

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