Out of Africa's midlife crisis
razib.substack.com
razib.substack.com
The surprising part is that measured genetic diversity within the small group of original Africans is greater than that of rest-of-the-world. Counter to intuition that skin tone is a strong indicator of relatedness, a Swede and an Andaman Islander probably have more common genetics than two members of different tribes who both live in the Kalahari desert in Namibia.
I'm confused though by his comments about "our species’ one-time amazing levels of genetic diversity." Overall, he seems to be espousing the idea that "diversity" is something we once had lots of, but have lost over time. Is this true? Did the the different tribes of African Bushmen start out as genetically distinct as they are today, or did they start from a common population and diverge over the last 200,000 years? Were those who left Africa always distinct from those who stayed, or did they change through selection (and interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans) over time?
One thing that should be made very clear is that ancient population structures generally don't map neatly to modern cultures or languages. It's best to treat modern terms as labels of convenience.
I had heard that there were several waves of migration towards Europe, do we have a better estimate about this? Wouldn't multiple waves over time provide more diversity?
for the out of africa group i've seen sizes from 100 to 10,000. i used 1,000 to 10,000 as a likely moderate number, and the range also points to the census size being larger
we can assume that conditional on the size of OoA the other groups were way larger (10x or more). otoh, the main thing i did not explore is that i am now believing that africans themselves especially agriculturalists are 'compounds' of various bottlenecked groups (why west africans are closer to eurasians than they are to khoisan)
i think this is probably an overestimate tbh (assumes poisson distribution of offspring).
Either way, my understanding is that all indications point to middle and late Pleistocene populations being highly structured and "unusual" as far as standard assumptions go.
"Diversity" can mean a lot of things. In this case, he's referring to the variety of individual alleles. Due to population bottlenecks, most of humanity has reduced variation: for example, at a certain spot in the genome everyone has a T, because everyone who survived the bottleneck happened to have a T there; but in the population that didn't go through the bottleneck, some people have a G instead.
On the other hand, for phenotypical diversity it's not just the set of individual alleles that matters, but their distribution and correlation. For example, let's say height is affected by thousands of genes, for each of which there is an allele that makes you slightly taller and one that makes you slightly shorter, and the combined effect of all these genes is approximately additive.
Then you may have a population A which has both variants for each gene, but they're independently distributed, so everyone is of medium height, with some variance. We also have a population B, which has only one variant left for several of these genes (they have lost diversity!). But B is split into two sub-populations, which differ in the distribution of the remaining height genes: B1 has more tall alleles, and B2 has more short alleles.
Now the average height of B1 is higher than that of A, and the average height of B2 is lower than that of A. You will find very tall people in B1 that you would never see in A, and very short people in B2 that you would also never see in A. So B has more diverse height phenotypes, even though B1 and B2 (even put together!) still have lower genetic diversity than A in terms of the available repertoire of alleles.
While groups like the San have a great deal of diversity within the group, they are also distinct from other Hunter Gatherer groups as well. The San are separated from the Hadza by about 110K years, IIRC.
> Were those who left Africa always distinct from those who stayed, or did they change through selection (and interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans) over time?
Yes, those who left Africa were the remnants of a distinct population, separated from the ancestors of sub-Saharan Africans by 40K years when they left Africa 60Kya.
We also know they had negligible genetic impact.
> while these folks were clearly a tiny minority and their distinctive appearance was often remarked upon, this did not hurt their social standing in any sense; there was even a well-known Egyptian dynasty of "Black" pharaohs.
You say that like social standing determines who gets to be king. The Nubian pharaohs got their position in the standard way, by conquering Egypt. They weren't native, they took very little interest in their new territory, and they didn't last very long.
There was a well-known Chinese dynasty of Mongol emperors. What do you think the social standing of Mongols in China was before and after that happened?
Absolutely not. They were gone a hundred years before the beginning of Persia.
I do have some questions though...
"If you don’t have Sub-Saharan African ancestry, all of your ancestry (aside from your differential rates of Neanderthal/Denisovan ancestry) goes back to the same 1,000-10,000 humans that split off from other Africans."
No introgression with other Sapien populations? We know that Sapiens existed outside of Sub-Saharan Africa long before that bottleneck. Are all additions to that genetic stock from other species?
Also, what's the relationship between genetically isolated and genetically diverse? Most of our ancestors went through single a bottleneck 60kya-120kya, with non africans going through at least one more. Theirs did not go through that bottleneck or a seperate one. Coincidence, or is it part of the story somehow?
Perhaps indirectly. As he addresses later in the text, it's possible that Denisovans in South East Asia encountered Homo erectus and interbred with them. The Denisovans appear to have more population structure as compared to Neanderthals, and introgression from H. erectus might explain some of it. Considering that South East Asia and Papua New Guinea has the highest Denisovan introgression in modern humans, it's possible that some of that H. erectus ancestry ended up in those of us from East of the Indus.
For what it's worth, I have seen other studies pop up from time to time that claim to have found introgression from some unknown ghost sapien population, but these outliers usually go away by tweaking the parameters.
Were there other such groups, in or out of sub-saharan africa... whos genes we carry?
The other anatomically modern humans were all in Africa, and it looks like there's been no interbreeding with them for at least 100K years. There has been a small introgression back into Africa by non-Africans within the last few thousand years, but that's a separate issue.
90% of the DNA for groups 2 & 3 comes from those 1000-10,000 individuals. A small smattering from neanderthals denisovans and ghosts. What's the rest?
There were anatomically modern humans outside of sub-saharan africa at some point. They just don't have descendants. But, my question applies either way. What matters is that they descend from groups outside of the funnel group, not where they lived.
That's not my understanding of the text. Other than the 2-5% Neanderthal & Denisovan contributions, the rest of our (ie, for non-Africans) ancestry arises entirely from this single group of 1-10k, not 90%. Perhaps you're confusing it with this statement?
> ... only 1,000-10,000 lucky humans made it through the impossibly narrow neck. Our best (always provisional) models suggest they dwindled from an earlier population maybe 10 times bigger. So this round of cuts diminished the breeding pool by 90%.
the piece was not exhaustive and meant to be an intro
Also, how much of, say, our medical/biological knowledge actually only applies to the descendants of the bottleneck mentioned in the post? I understand the "very diverse" in the article have better things to do than be subjected to researchers, but reading the article I can't help but be curious what this genetic diversity means in practice?
*) not necessarily visually
Sure, but at the end of the day you've got to pick a frame of reference and people have settled on North being the 'top'. You can draw a map that ignores this convention and still have it be valid but you're going to confuse a lot of people.
For what it's worth there's more landmass and population in the Northern Hemisphere so make of that what you will.
Explicitly stating direction rather than something that only refers to it with the aid of outside knowledge (the common orientation of maps) would be better. Otherwise, why don't we spin the map 180 degrees? Now the "correct" term would be "Super-Saharan Africa." Which is just as silly.
Yes there do seem to be a lot of Eskimo supremacists around.
I'm just going to start calling it Super-Saharan Africa. When people point out the issue on their map, I'll just flip it 180°. Google Maps conveniently reorients text.
The real fun begins when you decide to make longitude the horizontal aspect. Is it Dexterous Africa or Sinister Africa?
No need to wonder, it's because I see it as a farce. The idea that the top / bottom aspect is something that needs to be re-evaluated because it implies hierarchy is something so inconsequential that I just can't bring myself to take it seriously. And, if you really wanted to flip the hierarchy then you've got the same 'problem' just in reverse.
I know you really want to change the way people think but adopting the term "Super-Saharan Africa" is just going to make you look strange. I guarantee you no one will think "oh, this person means the southern part of Africa, but from the reference point of the equator to the South Pole." They're going to think "Wait what? A bigger Sahara? Desertification? What?"
Now, I'll ask you to take it seriously. If it's not a matter of concern for you, but it is for me, it would seem most fair to address my concern (since it's apparenty beneath your care). But if you do care, I'm happy to have that conversation. As stated, I would like to remove hierarchy (or the connotation of hierarchy) from the terminology altogether, and more explicitly refer to directionality. If you disagree with this course, please say why (beyond, "It shouldn't matter," because at this point we'd have agreed that it does).
I will say this, it is perfectly fine to worry about hierarchical structures and the impacts they have on people. But the mere existence or implication of hierarchy is not a problem in-and-of itself. Especially in this context, where I am certain the impact of North being considered 'up' and South being considered 'down' has not materially harmed anyone living down under. I also see no evidence that this paradigm/convention is actually harmful. Only speculation that it could be, in an indirect way, and for reasons I don't find compelling.
I'm also concerned that we're going to slip into one of the least productive kinds of argument, trying to define, redefine, and shift the meaning of words. So I'd like to avoid all of this and let bygones be bygones.
And that's fine. But you're putting a lot of energy into trying to convince me of that.
Do you see the contradiction? You claim that the nomenclature isn't a big deal, but then you go on to defend it - and even in this defense, you make an effort to wash your hands of the entire matter as quickly as possible. It's a weird appeal to the status quo, which I don't understand. Either the terminology matters to you or it doesn't. Does it? Do you prefer to refer to a "Sub-Saharan Africa"? If you do, why? And if not, why can't we just call it something else?
I am really curious. I think this sort of discourse is perfectly reasonable because it unpacks the meanings behind our initial reactions.
You'll just confuse people and look like a joker when you explain to them that you've decided to change universally accepted geographic nomenclature on your lonesome because you took a whiff of maybe possibly who knows racism.
> (riffing on Asia Minor and referring to the fact that that part of the continent is, in fact, a majority of its landmass).
Isn't Asia Minor a bit more than half of Turkey? It's certainly not a majority of all of Asia...
Is it absurd? Do they understand? Can you show me how you know this?
>Isn't Asia Minor a bit more than half of Turkey? It's certainly not a majority of all of Asia...
Sorry, I can see where I was unclear. I was referring to Africa.
It is absurd, they do understand, and I know it because I'm a native English speaker and I've never been in a conversation where anyone was confused by the term nor even in which someone bothered to clarify that they didn't mean to imply a hierarchy. I'm sure you're going to understand that this is satisfactory evidence and not resort to some sort of "BuT Do YoU kNoW eVeRy SiNgLe PeRsOn On ThE PlAnEt?!" nonsense.
> Sorry, I can see where I was unclear. I was referring to Africa.
Ah, thanks for clarifying. That makes sense.
Again, how so? The two connotations are not mutually exclusive.
If the goal is to avoid implying a hierarchy, why not change to a term that has no connection to hierarchy?