Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
doxa.substack.com
doxa.substack.com
Alternatively, Beijing may seek to negotiate with or coerce Taipei (or both) in order to allow China sole access to TSMC and block chip exports to the United States, thereby securing China’s own supply while crippling American industry.
But earlier in the article it's mentioned that the US effectively has a "kill switch" on TSMC (by cutting off key supplies needed to fabricate semiconductors). If this is true, then the scenario presented by Blanks seems unlikely -- or am I missing some detail?
Only after they have their own microprocessor industry, can they risk publicly invading Taiwan, and dealing with the retaliatory crippling of TSMC by supplying the rest of the supply chain.
It is a long and risky strategy. Who knows...
We will know in about 15-20 years.
Consider the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, they are much larger than any such loss would have, yet this pandemic didn't have any acute large-scale effect on geopolitics (though it will like have a longer-term, and some what unpredictable effect).
A much larger long-term effect of China's ambitions towards Taiwan would likely be seen in China's growing economic might resulting in a shifting of alliances/allegiances of East Asian countries between the US and China.
Make no mistake, we are in 'Willy Wonka' land with respect to currency.
The reason it hasn't lead to geopolitical fallout is because 'everyone is in the same boat'.
If 'just Canada' did this ... even with a pandemic, Canada would be getting trashed on the markets, major downgrades, the fallout would peter into a lot of things and there's no question at least the government would probably fall.
If if were acutely a China-Taiwan issue then all of a sudden the world's eyes would be on that as the source of the issue an it would cause a pretty big realignment.
This would be 10x more amplified were there a military component.
It's one thing for there to be a flummox over a virus, but China 'invading' countries would basically be such a strong signal ... it would be the demarcation point for literally a New World Order. Future historians would count the end of WW2 up until then as maybe a single era, with that event starting a new one.
All the chess pieces would be moved or adjusted.
In 400 years, Taiwan's political status will be relevant, ASIC fabs will be a footnote.
Here the author claims that TSMC and Taiwanese fabs will become "unavailable" in case of an invasion by the mainland. He also makes the claim that Taiwanese would 'disable' those fabs themselves in order "to protect customer IP".
The former is of course a possibility, the latter is rather more strange. Neither are explained.
It seems to me that the mainland would have an interest in protecting those fabs and in resuming "business as usual" as soon as possible, so I would imagine them drawing plans to make that happen in case of a military invasion. Fabs may also be very useful in order to keep any sanctions towards China at a minimum: Would the US want to push for, say, a trade embargo if that meant cutting off semi supply? Maybe but that would make these sanctions very painful for the West and their allies.
On the Taiwanese side, there might be a temptation to sabotage the fabs but IMHO that would be a shot in the foot: If the fabs are gone and the mainland does take control of the island then they would never allow such concentration in Taiwan to happen again so Taiwan would fade forever. And if the invasion fails then there would probably be a massive push to rebuild outside of Taiwan. All in all the destruction of the fabs would probably be used as a bluff/threat to push the US to protect Taiwan as much as possible (although the US would likely never directly attack Chinese forces, and reciprocally).
It won’t happen anyway. China is just Sabre rattling and beating its chest for political gain.
If they were going to do it then it should have been on Trumps watch, when there was no certainty at all the USA would back its allies in a conflict. Not that there’s much certainty now.
China is on a path to grabbing Taiwan and they'll have enough power that they can just 'do it' - with sufficient political cover, it's possible.
March 21s, 2031:
CPP drives internal foment in Taiwan through years of placing and supporting agents, and use more radical pro-China antagonists of the 'New Taiwanese Patriotic Party' to divide the country, they challenge the results of an election (which was by all accounts fair) after a few riots (instigated), Taiwan could wake up to find 'little green men in unmarked uniforms' all over the country - the naval bases surrounded, Chinese jets completely swarming the skies displaying imminent air superiority, 5000 of these 'little green men' facilitate the pro-China Taiwanese political leader to capture the Premier and force him to concede. They ask the Taiwanese Army to stand down - some do, some don't. Some units are surrounded, unable to fight, some units stand down, a few firefights erupt but the unprepared units are quickly disposed of by the 'little green men' and their supporting forces.
Tanks of the 'New Taiwanese Patriotic Party Army' roll through the streets, some protests erupt like in Hong Kong. The 'New Premier' formally asks China for help to 'restore civility' and China lends thousands of police to help quash the uprisings. Thousands of people dissapear never to be seen again.
Some business leaders, paid off and sympathetic to China, call for calm and peace, trying to maintain some degree of civil order so that business can continue ...
10% of the population takes sides with the 'Patriotic Taiwanese Force' and their calls for Unification with China and act as informants, enforcers in the name of peace and stability.
The world protests and enacts some sanctions, but are unwilling to challenge China's position on the UN Security Council and so the reaction amounts to a few empty words. The world opts to keep the 'integrity' of the UN rather than dissolve over the Taiwan issue.
CCP publicly proclaims they are committed to the Sovereignty of Taiwan within a 'United China' and support the new revolutionary Premier and his 'transitional government'. A couple of years later, a new constitution is enacted which formalizes Taiwanese 'Unification' with China.
I don't understand why people think that something like this won't happen.
Stalin had full control over the Communist Party in Germany during the 1920's Weimar Republic, and he was constantly formenting dissent, used thugs in the streets, and ironically with the collaboration of the 'far right' (i.e. Hitler himself, who the Communists though were useful idiots) tried to overthrow the ruling Social Democrats. They were unable to do that, but we know who eventually did.
If the world wants to ensure the sovereignty of Taiwan it'll probably take some extra love and vigilance on that issue, with intelligence support for the government there, military aid, and maybe an unofficial Navy 'base' established by some semi-permanent presence. And possibly some other commitments by the world to raise the cost of invasion for China.
China has literally stated that this is their objective, they are pretty good at moving towards their commitments, and the world is an unstable place - a little bit of well place calamity is all it takes for some dominoes to fall.
Isn't endgame war tech solved problem for like N decades?
What's the usecase? better AI? computer vision? research?
aren't computational resources for those provided by super computers?
https://www.digitimes.com/topic/taiwan_notebook_odms/a00176....
Taiwan though is different. China is not a strong naval power, its strength traditionally relying on its overwhelmingly immense land army. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult operations in warfare, and Taiwan's geography limits potential invasions to only a few easily defendable points. China is building up its naval capabilities, but getting to the point that seizing Taiwan is even feasible will still take years - years that they don't have. This is to say nothing of the inevitable coalition that would join Taiwan in resisting such an invasion. Without experience in such invasions, China would be likely to suffer tremendous losses for trivial gains, at least at first. This would make the CCP appear incompetent and further reduce their military capabilities at exactly the same time that they would be most at risk of internal strife, which no doubt foreign powers would be throwing their full weight behind.
No, it makes more sense that China's current posturing is saber rattling meant to stir nationalist sentiment in its own population. It's the same reason for its recent clashing with India and its remarkable recent diplomatic hostility. The last thing it wants or needs is new territory full of independence minded dissidents, but creating external enemies is a classic and often effective play for regimes on rocky ground.
While it's always possible that some hawkish firebrand comes to power or there is some major miscommunication that leads to hostility, the CCP and Xi especially have a long track record of pursuing stability above all else, which has honestly been the Chinese goto play for thousands of years. An invasion of Taiwan would be in direct opposition to that goal, and could only end very badly for the CCP and Xi. Perhaps if China survives its demographic crisis it will emerge as a premiere power that can seriously consider such military expeditions, but it'll be dealing with that problem for a generation.
By contrast, Taiwan is dreadful, at 1.07. Eventually, China will be able to just sail in.
The real threat to our chip supplies is that the world will run out of intelligent Taiwanese people to operate TSMC.
Your population in their 20s are your soldiers, your baby makers, your first home buyers, your 80 hour a week workers, your pop culture consumers - a sharp drop in their numbers is catastrophic for a nation's geopolitical and economic health. Combined with China's baby boom about to enter their 60s, when their economic productivity will substantially decline and their medical costs will skyrocket, to be supported primarily by weak cohorts 20 years younger it is a terrible position to be in. On top of this, the People's Republic of China is currently 72 years old, for context Russia went 74 years from the abdication of the Tsar to the fall of the Soviet Union, and the average lifetime of China's 49 dynasties has been 70 years. 65 to 75 years is approximately how long the revolution remains in living memory, how long people are still alive who personally remember how bad the previous regime was and thus continue to excuse any faults of the current regime. Once it passes out of living memory, calls for reform become far more intense. This triple whammy is imminent and inescapable.
For China to survive, it will have to deal with a shortage of manpower, a dramatic increase in the cost of social services, severe economic contraction, and the reforging of a national identity all at the same time, with a reduced sized military, a large number of young unmarried males with poor prospects, all while under severe external pressure along all fronts. This will be a rough decade for China.
For example if China will successfully take over Taiwan, it can use that experience as a leverage in it's colonization of African and Asian countries that it's already actively attempts. China was a provider of important bricks in the world economy growth in the past decades, if CCP manages to put themselves on top of someone elses economic growth the same way, they can manage to afford the very expensive management of demographic collapse and economy transformation.
Taiwan is not a source of manpower and economic growth, the only thing of value is a high tech industry that will be immediately destroyed by any sort of military action. Whatever minor gains could be hasd would be completely overshadowed by the immense cost of fighting the pro-taiwan coalition. China's economy is reliant on ocean going foreign trade, both for the import of raw materials and the export of its manufactured goods, but that trade is totally at the mercy of powers that aren't big fans of China to begin with and would openly oppose it in the case of war. You can't maintain the world's second largest economy running freighters through a blockade in the hopes of selling a fraction of your wares in third world ports.
Saber rattling is often an effective strategy for galvanizing public support, but actually fighting a war typically proves disastrous. Even in the absolute best case scenario where the US and other western countries don't join the conflict, one need only too look at the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam to see how a superpower can be humiliated by a grossly inferior opponent and the severe internal strife caused by such boondoggles. Again, amphibious assaults are difficult under the best of circumstances, and Taiwan is an especially difficult target; China's huge advantage in population is useless as you're limited by the number of troops you can land on a beach, and China has zero experience in conducting such operations. The odds of such a war becoming a long and protracted conflict that destroys the Chinese economy and causing mass unrest is incredibly high. The idea that Taiwan is an easy practice target on the road to some second scramble for Africa is simply laughable.
Well, tell that to the economists that praised "competitive advantage" out-sourcing of everything:
"Smith outlines the basic theory behind comparative advantage; that it makes more sense to manufacture a good which you have the necessary expertise and materials to produce than to inefficiently allocate your resources to the production of a good that some other country can produce for less overall cost."
Yeah, until that other country becomes an enemy, or a monopoly, or has you by the balls - or another country snaps it or cozies up with it...
But, yeah, who would have though that would ever happen in the "end of history" era.
It especially ignores how another country can also buy/"partner" with your companies, and export their expertise to help their own companies, and harm yours.
A simplistic model that ignores a wide variety of behavior economic and political actors can and do engage in, yet that didn't stop economists from swearing up and down that there's nothing to worry about.
In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the closer nation is right there.
Note that I am leaving thermonuclear escalation off the table. Nobody really wins that one. I’m imagining a scoped conventional conflict in the form of an intervention.
Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
Likewise, I don't think it would be in China's interest to destroy TSMC's fabs. Quite the opposite, I think they would probably want to keep them intact if they can help it and resume business as usual as soon as possible.
They probably could not stop an 'all in invasion' - of course - but that's not the point. The point would be to raise the cost significantly i.e. 'invading Cuba would mean war with China'.
There are a lot of things the US could to do raise the cost of the invasion of Taiwan, but it's hard. Every move comes with a counter move.
The US would have to coordinate with everyone else on this. They're trying to do that but it's hard.
If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan out, and submarines to enforce the blockade.
They currently have enough DF-21 to make the USN very skittish about approaching within range of current carrier aircraft. There are countermeasures to the DF-21, particularly the targeting chain that can be disrupted, but that's dicey.
The PLA currently has enough aircraft in the region to gain air superiority, though not air supremacy.
Submarines are the real wild card. The US Navy's SSN fleet is stretched thin, and is in declining numbers compared to the PLAN fleet. Qualitatively, the USN is far superior, but...
In terms of other ASW assets, the USN is woefully unprepared for fighting against an opponent with home turf advantage. The CVNs no longer carry organic ASW assets, and have lost a lot of the institutional knowledge learned during the Cold War. The surface fleet has also let ASW skills atrophy.
All these combine to make it very unlikely the US would attempt to overcome a blockade in the next decade. If the US were to invest a significant amount of money above the current baseline in shipbuilding, this calculus might be different.
The terms of the deal is to always be paid in USD -- USD which is held in custodial accounts in the US. Thus it is a roundabout way of exporting to acquire more foreign currency reserves. But the moment there is any kind of conflict, all of China's foreign reserve holdings are likely to be seized in the worst case and frozen in the best case, so the fact that there are bridges and ports all over Africa and Southeast Asia built by Chinese workers isn't going to help China import food or get past US control of shipping lanes.
But neither is it buying influence overseas, as these projects are wildly unpopular and result in unsustainable debt burdens and massive amounts of ill-will. If you look at a map, you see most of these projects happening in authoritarian nations or nations where there is a lot of corruption, and what happens is that leaders force their country into unsustainable debt burdens while they themselves get bribed. Then when they leave office, the nation will default and now it will be an enemy of China. It's like China's project to extract resources from Africa -- lots of ill will and anti-Chinese feelings are created from these projects. It certainly does not cause their foreign influence to increase, but it does create jobs for Chinese workers, which is the point. The fact of the matter is that the Chinese construction industry has already built far too many airports and ports that China can use domestically, so as with the manufacturing excess capacity, the excess capacity of the construction sector is being offloaded onto the rest of the world, primarily to third world nations that can't afford these ports, and it is happening at the expense of lots of ill-will.
What would be in China's interest would be shrink its construction industry and try to re-allocate to providing healthcare, senior services, and other services that China's own population needs. The sooner they stop exporting excess capacity in all these industries the better. That would also do much to at least stem the tide of anti-Chinese resentment that is created by these projects in which excess capacity is dumped onto the rest of the world. Don't underestimate the long term damage that these projects are creating all over the world to China's image.
Its the leaders, not the public, who are the people that China is buying influence with.