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Comment by Someone1234 | Hacker News Reader

I wonder when (or if?) we'll see scale result in lower pricing. The M3 was originally meant to be Tesla's "affordable" vehicle, but it currently costs $42K base ($39,990 + $1,200 dest. & doc) with no tax incentives at all.

That isn't affordable, that is lower end luxury. A plug-in Prius Prime starts at $29,215 (inc. dest. & doc) but has $4,502 in federal tax incentives.

Also, if I have $42K to spend on an electric vehicle why wouldn't I buy a Ford Lightning instead of a sedan? The Lightning isn't even more expensive in its class of vehicles (short-bed trucks), whereas the Tesla Model 3 is $15K more than its class (mid-size sedans).

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The Ford Lightning is going to be the best selling electric vehicle in America in 2025 (+/- 2 years) and beyond. The only way this doesn't happen is if Ford doesn't produce enough. If Ford can meet demand, by 2030, the Ford Lightning will be the best selling vehicle in America.

1. as far as I know, there are more pre-orders for the Cybertruck than for the Lightning

2. the bottleneck isn't the production of the vehicles but of the battery cells. Tesla has secured far more battery production than Ford and the Cybertruck needs less cells than Lightning for the same range.

3. the advantages of Tesla will continue to increase as Tesla expands their charging network. Unless I'm mistaken, Ford does not plan to compete and wait for others to build a network.

1. A quick google result shows about 10x. 1 million vs 100,000. Still, I think we'll see Tesla hit a ceiling at some point. I could be wrong. But for the most part, cars like the Model 3 and the Cybertruck existed in a near vacuum of desirable futuristic electric vehicles. Competition is starting to finally show up, and not everyone will choose Tesla. Plus, Tesla needs to produce - if they ramp quickly, I'd suspect maybe 100,000 Cybertrucks to sell each quarter. Ford also needs to ramp quickly, though. They've sold less than 20,000 Mach-e because they've only produced that many.

2. In the EV space, production is key. And batteries are central to EV production. No doubt about it.

3. Tesla has the best charger network (in the U.S. at least; I'm not fully versed.) The combined competitive networks are growing but they need to improve on quality, too. Still, I think this moat is shrinking, not growing.

Having used both, the non Tesla charger networks are almost unusable. UX is extremely important for people buying their first EV, it absolutely has to be plug and play. Sadly only Tesla has understood this.

They will lower prices when they start to have excess inventory, and right now they have the opposite problem. It's hard to get even a $45K entry level Tesla in most of the country without waiting months for delivery.

> Also, if I have $42K to spend on an electric vehicle why wouldn't I buy a Ford Lightning instead of a sedan

That's a weird question. The two vehicles are in completely different categories. What would an average city dweller/commuter/soccer mom do with a truck?

The biggest problem for Ford is that their target demographic for the F-150 is the exact opposite of the environmentally-conscious urban millennial who buys electric, and so marketing is going to be a massive hurdle.

> The two vehicles are in completely different categories.

And yet cost the same, thus my point.

> What would an average city dweller/commuter/soccer mom do with a truck?

It is a five-seater "crew cab"-style truck, so can perform the same basic functions as a sedan and more.

If you have $42K what are the arguments for the Model 3 over the Lightning? You just want a less functional/utilitarian vehicle that costs more after Ford's federal tax incentives?

The argument is that I want a sedan, not a pickup truck, as do a million other annual car buyers.

> as do a million other annual car buyers.

The car category that has seen year-on-year decline, with several manufacturers discontinuing completely, as consumers move to SUVs and trucks in droves. I'm not sure the data is on your side here.

If the Cybertruck and Lightning ship at around $40K let's see if the M3 can compete there. I highly doubt it based on historical US vehicle sales.

And... about a million trucks are sold every 4 months in the U.S.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-pickup-truck-sales-fig...

I think the Ford F-150 Lightning is an odd comparison to a Model 3. But you also get much more with the F-150 for the money.

Still, you can pay $20,000 and get a sedan that does most of what the Model 3 does (as far as basic transportation with seats.) The original comment stands - when will the Model 3 be price competitive with affordable, basic transportation?

> What would an average city dweller/commuter/soccer mom do with a truck?

Wait til you hear what the average city dweller/commuter/soccer mom drives in much of US/Canada...

Most of North America has no incentive to drive smaller vehicles besides the cost of purchase and the cost of fuel. Since electric vehicles remove the cost of fuel, that leaves only the cost of purchase ... which is the same if you get an entry level model 3 or the entry level f150 lightning. The only people that have an incentive to get a smaller vehicle is if you happen to live in one of a few urban centres where vehicle size matters (NYC, SF, Boston, a few others), you need a new vehicle and can't use car share.

> The biggest problem for Ford is that their target demographic for the F-150 is the exact opposite of the environmentally-conscious urban millennial who buys electric

I bet there will aftermarket noise and smoke generators for electric trucks.

One is for sale right now and one is for sale in the future is one major reason.

Some time after they can't generate 122.0% year-on-year growth without lowering prices?

A few days ago I watched a video, link below, about the Gigapress that Tesla is using, and the expectation is that once that process is fully tuned it will cut production costs dramatically. IIRC, right now they are running the Gigapress at half it's ultimate speed as they work with the manufacturer to tune it.

The TL;DR: It is a giant casting press that allows them to make the chassis in 3 parts rather than 100+, which allows them to not have to weld or assemble all those parts using other robots.

As far as the pricing, I will say on the other side of the coin that $40K is that it doesn't take much to price a Kia up to $45K... Cars are EXPENSIVE now.

https://youtu.be/rsBbt3TxKGg

Not while they're selling out every car they can manufacture at higher prices.

Prius Prime is THE vehicle for people who care more about the environment than electric luxury, which Tesla serves.

Nissan Leaf tho

There are many PHEV out there with much better all-electric range. 25 miles is a pittance.

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