I think one reason why wages might not decrease is communication speed. My team works with folks in Europe and Singapore, and while the asynchronous communication works and we love our teammates the time delay can be killer. Worse, if you do need to speak realtime you need to hop on meetings at odd hours. Who wants to do that? It might be cheaper, but if cost reduction was a factor I feel like we’d already have done it. I think communication speed will minimize any salary impact by a globalized talent pool.

US domestic competition is a concern, but my hunch is that even with the wider talent pool companies will still have trouble recruiting and good developers will still have leverage over not needing to move. I think it would be interesting to find numbers on how concentrated developers are in expensive cities, I know plenty of people who moved to California for the work.

Also, if my wage suddenly decreased to match levels with places that are cheaper to live in I’d probably have to move away from all my friends and now family as I wouldn’t be able to afford to live where I currently do (SV). That would suck, and I think it’s fair that I feel concern over losing that. Not sure where all the negativity in this thread is coming from.