Apple Daily: Hong Kong pro-democracy paper announces closure
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Clearly China has no interest in maintaining Hong Kong as a livable place, so we might as well help out the people who recognize they're tumbling towards an authoritarian hellhole.
That would be nice but their government is controlled by lackeys for Beijing; they lack an independent military; and even if they had one, HK is completely militarily indefensible from China.
Taiwan is in much better shape in all of those areas, but still I fear for them. IMHO, they need to be sent far more weapons by the US and they need to pretty much organize their entire military-age population into a well-trained reserve army a-la Israel.
As a trade partner, Taiwan is a valuable ally to the US, but the potential cost of defense is enormous both in economic terms and human life lost. If the US were to intervene it would kick off a World War. The question of US intervention becomes a question of morals versus pragmatism.
Would China stop at Taiwan? If not where would they invade next? Where does the US draw the line? Where would the US have the best chance of making a decisive stand? Taiwan, unfortunately, is not easily defended from China.
Guesses follow. Mainly based upon my suspicion Chinese are falling into the curse of empires. Similar to how a billionaire will ascribe fiscal success to acumen in other fields. But on a national scale. This is extremely atypical of China’s history, but here we are with them rattling a bunch of their regional neighbors.
If they invade Taiwan, they won’t likely stop at Taiwan. But they probably won’t take another bite for a generation or so.
> If not where would they invade next?
Either Korea (both) or Japan. India antics are a feint. They’ll opportunistically “regent” Pakistan if a Pakistani collapse falls into their lap. If whatever they attempt after a successful Taiwan invasion is also successful, they’ll want a rematch with Vietnam.
> Where does the US draw the line?
From the Alaskan rhetoric, China is indicating they strongly suspect the US won’t ever draw a line as long as China continues to slowly bleed out the US. Doesn’t matter what US will do. China sets the cadence, it matters what China will do.
> Where would the US have the best chance of making a decisive stand?
Best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. Next best time is today.
> Taiwan, unfortunately, is not easily defended from China.
With several hundred fusion bombs hypersonically delivered, a ham sandwich is defensible. Taiwan doesn’t need to mount a defense that convinces China that Taiwan will win. Taiwan just needs to convince China that China will lose, too.