For literary novelists the past is pressing
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Here's the thing: it's not that historical fiction has come up in the world, or suddenly gotten good enough, or popular enough to be noticed. It's that literary fiction is largely irrelevant to most people — even the fraction of people who still read at all — and has been getting less relevant for decades. Most other genres are more relevant than literary fiction: to the culture, by sales, whatever.
By which, I mean that it's not that these authors and awards committees are deigning to dip their toes into genres they wouldn't have before, it's that they're jumping on board a bandwagon rather than getting left behind.
It’s actually quite amusing how literary fiction has become such a closed off place when the works its academic apparatus almost worships is, historically speaking, genre/popular fiction.
Dickens was the equivalent of TV serials, Shakespeare was hardly high brow entertainment for its time (Ben Johnson was the court dramatist, not Shakespeare), and anything older than Chaucer didn’t even qualify as high literature simply for not being sacred/written in Latin.
The ivory tower is getting scared of its own irrelevancy and rightly so.
1. Some books are chasing the past for its aesthetics or gravitas. One version of this is trying to reinvent old mythologies you loved as a child. Another is to write a novel about a child growing up in 1930's Germany and now it's a serious novel worthy of serious attention by serious critics.
If either of those are your jam, that's cool.
2. The other is escaping the present time, for a writer, sets you (and your readers) free from our politics and our cell phones and our knowledge, under a strange set of social norms where traveling long distances and sharing information are real hurdles.
One of my favorite books these days is Dexter Palmer's "The Rabbit Queen," about a hoax from the point of view of the fooled physicians in 1726. Yes it's based on real events, but it can also have characters and situations that would never work or even make sense if set in modern times.
that is a far cry from the early 20th century or 19th century
For some writers a genre is a crutch - a thousand steel-capped dreadnoughts tearing through the yielding fabric of feebly protesting spacetime blah blah. For others, and O'Brian is the best I've come across, the genre is the constraint that forces true creativity.
I think it is reasonable to observe that his female leads (modulo Clarissa Oakes maybe) are a bit cardboard cutout.