Hyundai acquires controlling stake in Boston Dynamics for $880M
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Boston Dynamics are one of the few real serious players in the robotics space worldwide doing deep R&D.
Hyundai are basically paying for the BD Labs research. And they are well positioned to reap the products and techniques from the lab with their own manufacturing and engineering prowess and experience over the next decade.
And it won't be walking dogs.
It will be things like a little flexi-joint in a car that you buy without knowing (or caring) it's in there. Or some industrial machine that Hyundai builds that gives them a 5% competitive edge in the manufacturing of it that 99.9999% of us never hear about.
But for that it's worth it.
Very happy to see people put good money into this Lab.
Maybe we'll see vast car factories, churning out thousands of cars per day, with only a half dozen staff in years to come?
The limitations in car production are always the component supply chain, not the actual manufacture.
But to see how much robots actually do nowadays, compare that to auto assembly from decades ago when robots were new, or further back when they did not exist
GM is of course tied in with the UAW, so they're going to be as favorable to labor as possible in their promo videos, but take a look at this video of one of their production facilities, this is reflective of the amount of manual input into modern automotive production:
Especially customisation and snapping delicate plastic trim pieces in place is still done by hand.
My rule of thumb is that there is about 10% of manufacture cost that are direct or indirect cost connected to payroll.
If I may add another axis of reflexion that I consider fundamental for modern engineers to consider, food for machines for producing a car (44% natural gas when smithing things) is about 15 to 25% of the energy cost to use the car in its lifetime, according to the EU. Or about 2,400 euro of a 8L/100km car.
So in a world where energy gets more expensive, automation needs to definitely evolve, but not solely to be faster or replace more humans.
Looking at the wider group, I would think there's lots of roles for robotics in construction. Delivery of heavy items across uneven terrain or up stairs - may be something like a robotic hod carrier.
Also from my last visit at an assembly plant ~5 years ago, most plants are still on large conveyors vs. driving individual vehicles around the plant, and materials handling is still in the 90's with little stripe-following tugs slowly moving about the place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyundai_Group
"regular collaborative efforts" is an understatement.
This is a good outcome, the money wasn't 'wasted' since it spurred development in a particular area of interest to DARPA - advanced robotics.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...
This is called "biobucks" in the industry. There's an incentive to close big deals for management and business types in biotech, so they love to craft these large headlines to drop it on their resume and grift at another big pharma.
I'd be surprised if they ever received the $180MM, although $240MM upfront is really impressive.
The larger point is that Moderna was flush with cash for years before COVID, and the DARPA money wasn't that 'crazy' of an investment, or essential to Moderna's progress.
If Google can't figure out how to get a messaging app right, there's no way they can make sense of this purchase.
I presume this is mostly because US manufacturing industry is relatively dead so capex for potential automation gains don't make sense for US firms.
Here's where we need to be spending our tax money. We should be buying overseas firms and onshoring manufacture.
Like many of the EU industries, viable U.S. industries tends to produce and export unique things with relatively small physical volume: complex chips, complex chemical compounds (like medicines), precision mechanics, high-performance agricultural equipment, aircraft, spacecraft, etc. Of course the U.S. does produce higher-volume things, too, from cars to foods to fuels, but these are more for domestic consumption, and often face competition from imported goods even domestically.
Provide path to citizenship and education opportunities for children of immigrants, but host all manufacturing domestically at rates comparable to overseas facilities. Beat them on opportunity and subsidize workplace safety and vacation.
Provide tax incentives or transferable/sellable credits. We could even federally purchase the land and provide no-cost ground lease.
Dollars to dollars, this would make way more sense than extending Amtrak. It'd also stop population decline and create a next generation of American consumer.
Before the big dip caused by covid, the value of US manufacturing output had never been higher. [1]
Even in inflation adjusted/real value terms, US manufacturing output is 50% higher today than it was 30 years ago.
My guess is that the perception is cause by a few factors:
- fewer people are employed in manufacturing than were in the past because of improved manufacturing technology/productivity
- other sectors of the US economy have grown at a faster rate than manufacturing (tech for example) which means manufacturing represents a smaller share of a bigger pie
- the US is no longer number 1 in the world as China surpassed the US about 10 years ago. But the US still manufactures more than Germany, Japan and South Korea combined, for example.
[1] https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2020-united-sta...
In addition, Robots manufacturing cars or car parts, improving their own robotic products could be another reason behind this.
But there are still a number of areas where wheeled robots are at a disadvantage: inspection of complex industrial installations (like complex pipework and other hard-to-reach areas), firefighting and rescue operations, well, even delivery in places with steps and stairways.
Korea is more technophilic than USA, and Hyundai is well-connected. They may find a more ready market for such products.
Other tech companies can seemingly lose millions, as long as there's an advertising or data-mining angle to the product. Because Boston Dynamics aim to actually create physical products they then get valued lower?
For example, a motor that has more torque with low power consumption.
A joint that can flex a certain way.
All those things are worth $100000000x more than a robotic Spot when it comes to industrial applications.
DeepMind's greatest commercial achievement seems to have been around optimizing energy usage in Google's datacenters, which as a standalone product would have a relatively small addressable market. The progress that BD has made is likely similar: immediately valuable to a small number of players, even if the long term winds up being something far more grand.
According to what criteria?
Your typical tech unicorn can at least tell a story of tens or hundreds of millions of potential customers (either paying or eyeball-monetized) with a unit cost of pennies per customers.
Boston Dynamics story is still "each robot costs tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars" and "almost no one has a use for one".
Honestly I'm not sure there's a story for a profitable market for humanoid robots until your robots are sophisticated enough to build themselves.
Does anyone know where their revenue is coming from currently? For all the flashy videos they put out, you so rarely see them that I'm not sure if they're just doing well on the B2B side (warehouse automation? military contracts?), or if they've been in the red for the last decade.
My two cents. If not military use or a very expensive niche use, e.g. for emergency services, then those things will have a pretty hard time to enter the mass-consumer market.
What will probably happen is that a Chinese company will be able to produce a 80% version of those machines for less than 1k. This is when those things will become interesting to consumers for whatever purpose those things can be used.
As long as the SPOT robot costs over 70k, nobody will even consider buying it.
Also Unitree is going to make so much money selling these as well as get so much mass producing experience they'll probably be able to figure out the algorithms. Methinks the code is easier to figure out than reliable and cheap hardware.
I did not reference SPOTs specs but it must be full of low volume custom parts (expensive). They are honestly probably selling them at little to no profit as $70k is about how much a low volume custom research robot might cost in parts. But I could see them getting SPOT down to $20k in parts, but then you still need to do assembly which is going to be very hands on with technicians doing assembly and test engineers checking components. And one could imagine they'd like it if they could manage some profit. IDK it all adds up robots are super expensive.
2- Is the Unitree robot so similar because of talent poaching or just a coincidence?
3-How could a person invest in a company like unitree?
Thanks
Robot dogs are going to look like dogs - a body with legs. According to the about page, the CEO has been developing quadruped robots since 2013 (his masters thesis). https://www.unitree.com/aboutus
Looks like they've take venture capital money: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/unitree-robotics
I was a contractor at Google when the Google//Boston Dynamics was happening, I now work//live in Silicon Valley, I grew up in MA, so I've been mildly following the story.
Is this sort of pinball "normal"?
Comparing numerically, the revenue generated from ($21.8b) WhatsApp is higher than from Boston Dynamics ($880M).
For 2020 WhatsApp approximately == $5.5b (Forbes https://www.businessofapps.com/data/whatsapp-statistics/)
For 2020 Boston Dynamics == $53m (GrowJo https://growjo.com/company/Boston_Dynamics)
I think the next step of mobility is a mobile robot. The cars of the future should be a central hub for move people between places, but able to do a lot more through physical manipulation, instead of becoming a enlarged mobile information terminal.
Thus, developing cars as robots are going to be more useful in that future.
I personally will invest time in building products that are mobility robots, not cars with giant screen.
Self-driving done right could save me from having two cars. It could take me to work, drive back home, pickup the wife, drive her to work. Go back and pick me up in the afternoon, drop me of at home and the drive back to get the wife.
Firstly we need to spread out peoples work day. We can't all be at the office a 8:00, and go home at 16:00. it wouldn't make economical sense in have a fleet large enough to handle peak hours, but have the cars do nothing most of the day.
There's also details like: I would like a car to pick me up at 15:45, and drive me to the kindergarten, and that car MUST have a seat for a three year old (but not a seat of brand X, Y, or Z, because they're to small). Or I need a car with a trailer, or a truck, because I'm moving 500kg of dirt to the recycling station.
Most people shop around for cars and pick very specific cars that fit their needs. So renting for a fleet of cars also need a rather large variety and flexibility in allowed usage.
I believe that many would still want to buy their own cars, even if it's self-driving, to ensure it's available when they need it, and that it fulfil their specific needs.
If we didn't have all these specific needs, most of us could just take the bus, which in turn would make it feasible to have all the bus routes people would need.
But that’s the current state of the world.
Even if you have enough cars to meet peak demand you will have an efficiency saving (at least where I live you see a lot of cars in driveways during rush hour traffic).
That said I agree that for a lot of people their car is an extension of their home, they’ll keep the golf clubs and a coat in the boot etc. But for the 80% case of just carrying a rucksack to and from work there is a massive efficiency improvement to be had.
True, but the difference is who's carrying the financial risk of the buying the car. Right now it's the individual consumers, who are mostly forced to do so, because better alternatives are not available.
Leasing companies would never buy a fleet of cars that would sit mostly unused. Their cars needs to be on the road most of the time.
This puts us back in Uber vs. taxis. Uber works because (depending on area and regulation) there cannot be sufficient taxis to handle peak demands, that wouldn't be financially sound for the taxi companies. Uber tries to fix this, by taping into idle cars in the driveways. A company that maintains a fleet of cars that you can just order on-demand, would always have to few cars for rush hour.
car-sharing already exists on a large scale in German capitals. you can park and pickup cars from e.g. Sixt or Share Now everywhere within a marked area. the business model for owning and maintaining a big fleet is already there.
It is extremely common for markets to face bursts in demand at peak times, and yet somehow we always find a sustainable equilibrium.
Thinking through what it costs me to own a car, I'm going to carefully do the math if they price my trip into the office at more than about $5 (it's a short drive). That's probably the bigger problem.
Supply and demand with dynamic pricing will sort that out.
Consider also that autonomous vehicles could make much more efficient use of existing road capacity.
> If we didn't have all these specific needs, most of us could just take the bus
Buses do not take you directly to your preferred location, without stopping, with your own private space, etc.
I find it confusing that one reason the tech crowd cheered on Uber's success was because taxis were often filthy and poorly maintained. But autonomous car fleets won't be?
Cars in that mode could be constrained to a less dangerous speed to limit damage in an accident. I don't want to drive to work at 20km/h, but once I'm out of the car, I don't really care how slowly it goes.
Of course, it wouldn't necessarily work to combine too broadly differing speeds on the same roads. But it would remove a bit of the "I'm not putting on my VR goggles to do work and trusting this car to drive to the office" fear.
If there was a common communication standard, the vehicles could also park much more tightly than is done in a normal parking lot. You don't need to keep empty space behind each car when you can coordinate the parked cars to move and clear a path. My guess is that you could park almost twice as many cars in the same space.
The combination of reducing parking lot size and freeing people from walking to/from the lot would open up many interesting options for increasing density and walkability in commercial areas.
The other people on the road trying to get to work probably do.
"Of course, it wouldn't necessarily work to combine too broadly differing speeds on the same roads."
Not too long ago, or at least the last time I remember them hitting my news streams, was when they demonstrated a bot capable of handling moderately complex warehouse tasks.
If my reading of this sequence of events is correct, it is probably no coincidence that foreign investment came in after applications shifted from tactical militaristic use that would likely be restricted to the US & allies, and now also includes applications more generally applicable to uses outside of warfare.
It seems that military applications may be compelling, but plowshares are more economically interesting.
But no, I wasn't aware that they had failed to keep military interest, thank you.
There are a few reasons to only acquire a controlling stake rather than 100% of the shares; you might want to preserve capital for other uses, or leave some shares to be traded on public markets so the stock still has a market valuation.
https://kubota.ca/en/products/power-equipment/excavators/k00...
I do wish controlling interest had managed to stay stateside, but, well, it is what it is.
(I don’t think this is true; I am of the belief that the hidden secret within most companies, regardless of size or industry, is that they’re way more boring and way less sophisticated than they would like to appear.)
Probably not, since South Korea maintains pretty good relations with its neighbors. South Korea (as well as the rest of the world) doesn't see the U.S. anymore as a rational partner, but as something to be managed with caution. North Korea is unironically seen as a more predictable and reliable enemy than the U.S. is seen as a reliable ally. Nobody is happy about this, but that's the reality.
Because from an outside perspective the neighborhood really looks challenging. China is growing stronger and throws muscle around a lot with diplomatic rows ensuing even over traditional ways of cabbage preparation. Relationships with Japan are cordial at best due to WWII legacy. North Korea seems to be a pretty big liability.
Like any democracy, you have continents of folks that want to cozy up to China, and others that trust the history of their relationships with the US and Japan.
I say this as someone living in a region where the 'local neighborhood' also has its challenges in the form of a wannabe world power local authoritarian hegemon. Alliances, including the one with the US, are seen as paramount for security and long-term sovereignty. If that also fulfills some US strategic interests, so be it. The alternative is dreadful.
edit: Karl Marx came up with it first it seems haha. I swear I didn't know!
> The deal will involve Hyundai and its affiliates, including Hyundai Motor Co., Hyundai Mobis Co., and Hyundai Glovis Co.
> Hyundai Motor, Hyundai Mobis, Hyundai Glovis, and Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Euisun will have 30%, 20%, 10%, and 20% share respectively.
It’s been a while since I’ve had to think about consolidated financial reporting for subsidiaries and — if anyone happens to know — I’d be curious to understand how (or whether) these ownership tranches will make it onto Hyundai Parent Co’s financial statements?