It's not that reproducible builds provide 0 value it's that they don't truly solve the trust problem as initially stated. They also have non-security value to boot which is often understated compared to the security value IMO.
Most of the world is happy enough with the soft guarantee of: “This is _probably_ your bank’s real website. Unless a nation state is misusing their control over state owned certificate authorities, or GlobalSign or LetsEncrypt or whoever has been p0wned.”
Expecting binary black and white solutions to trust problems isn’t all that useful, in my opinion. Often providing 50% more “value” in trust compared to the status quo is extremely valuable in the bigger picture.
Solving that singular attack vector in the delivery chain does nothing for solving the need to trust the altruism and self interest of maintainers. A good thing™? Absolutely, along with the other non security benefits, but has nothing to do with needing to trust maintainers or be in the niche that reviews source code when automatic updates come along as originally sold.
That same edgewise applies to your bank too. Pinned TLS certs or pre shared keys might help against "BadGuys(tm)", but you're still screwed if your bank decides to keep your money. (s/bank/online crypto wallet/ for real world examples there...)
If you have a fair suspicion that something is up and you discover that when you compile reproduceable-package you get a different output than when you download a prebuilt reproduceable-package, you've now got something to work with.
Your observation that they don't truly solve the trust problem is true. But it's somehow not relevant. It is better to be better off.
So was most every part of computer hardware and software initially - this is just another milestone in that journey.
Eg suppose you have a software package X, available both as a binary and in source.
With reproducible builds, you can start distributing the binary to your fleet of computers, while at the same time you are kicking off the build process yourself.
If the result of your own build is the same as the binary you got, you can give the command to start using it. (Otherwise, you quarantine the downloaded binary, and ring some alarm bells.)
Similarly, you can re-build some random sample of packages locally, just to double-check, and report.
If most debian users were to do something like that, any tempering with the debian repositories would be quickly detected.
(Having a few malicious users wouldn't hurt this strategy much, they can only insert noise in the system, but not give you false answers that you trust.)
I'd imagine that if I were looking at causing world wide chaos, I'd love nothing better than getting into the tool chain in a way that I could later on utilise on a wide spread basis.
At that point I would have achieved my aims and if that means I've burnt a few people along the way, so be it, I'm a bad guy, the damage has been done, the objective met.
What we can't do is throw our hands up and say anyone who compromises the toolchain deep enough is just allowed to win. It will happen at some point if we don't put the right barriers in place.
It's the first step of a long journey, but it is a step we should be taking.
It's true that no single person can audit their entire dependency tree. But many eyes make all bugs shallow.
For something like C, all bets are off: http://www.underhanded-c.org/ or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underhanded_C_Contest
This is just objectively wrong. I have worked on projects at FAANG where entire teams did not spot critical security issues during review.
You are very unlikely to spot an issue with just one pair of eyes. You need many if you want any hope of catching bugdoors.