Let’s not forget the censorship of the lab leak hypothesis. A few months ago it was a racist theory that constituted thoughtcrime and couldn’t be mentioned, and now the mainstream thinking is that it’s the most likely explanation.
"I can present solid scientific evidence to our audience that this virus, COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 virus, actually is not from nature. It is a man-made virus created in the lab."
— Dr. Li-Meng Yan on the Tucker Carlson show.
Firstly it was a no-go to claim it came from the lab. „It came from a wet market“ was the only truth you were allowed to claim without getting censored. Now that Fauci‘s emails are visible, it becomes more evident that the origin is a lab.
Now you are only allowed to claim that it accidentally escaped from a lab.
What’s next? Maybe we will see new evidence coming out that it was created and released on purpose. Let’s wait and see what we will be allowed to say then on social media.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-...
Let's not forget that not only is the lab leak theory to this day just one possibility, it's still not backed by much evidence, whereas many other viruses have jumped species before without needing a lab.
Finally, even in the unlikely event it turns out to have leaked from the lab and we manage to get convincing evidence of that now, that doesn't actually make those claims last year any more defensible. It's not OK to spout wild claims without evidence - even though if you do so often enough, you'll get lucky sometimes. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but that does not mean breaking clocks is a valid strategy for telling the time.
And unless I'm missing something, it's just not plausible that fox news or mike pompeo or whoever had some secret evidence - if they had it, they would have shared it, somebody would have leaked it, or at the very least other corroborating sources would have appeared. None of that happened: ergo they were lying at least by exaggeration - and that's assuming they even believed the story to be at least plausible.
For the zoonotic leap hypothesis, all you need is for some people to be near some sick bats. Which one is simpler?
The zoonotic leap is definitely plausible too. But there you have to explain how the virus mutated to be infectious to humans. Whereas the lab is known to have intentionally modified the coronaviruses it was studying to be infectious to humans.
Bat coronaviruses were studied at BSL-2 as they were not believed to be dangerous to humans. Reference: the head of the WIV covid lab. https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-bat-woman-center-pandemic-1814... “ Shi said that bat viruses in China could be studied in BSL-2 labs because there was no evidence that they directly infected humans, a view supported by some other scientists.”
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...
I mean, not saying labs shouldn't be extremely careful, especially if the pathogen isn't unusually dangerous - but the outside world generally contains quite a few dangerous pathogens too, any more more (and more intense) interactions between host and human in which bad things can happen.
To be clear, these issues are serious and need addressing, but nevertheless the sheer numbers involved would suggest that the security incidents by themselves are unlikely to cause this kind of pandemic. We'd need some additional ingredient, like intention infection with multiple human subjects over a prolonged period, or extremely successful gain-of-function... something that can shift those otherwise billion-to-one odds very, very far.
Out of a kind of morbid fascination if indeed it turns out this long shot actually happened it would be really interesting to read the post-mortem as to which factors contributed, because it kind of has to be a list of bad luck and poor decisions.
(But to reiterate: it's not OK to ignore risks even if they aren't the most likely source of pandemic outbreaks, that's a way too low bar!)
Or someone having a bad day. Human beings are not robots. In fact they are quite opposite, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core
> all you need is for some people to be near some sick bats.
Seems that there are multiple problems with that..
1. High level of optimisation for Human transmission, without many mutations indicating the possibility that it was pre-optimised somewhere before making the jump.
2. Presense of double `CGG` which is left as a common market to denote lab insertions.
>The insertion sequence of choice is the double CGG. That’s because it is readily available and convenient, and scientists have a great deal of experience inserting it. An additional advantage of the double CGG sequence compared with the other 35 possible choices: It creates a useful beacon that permits the scientists to track the insertion in the laboratory.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-science-suggests-a-wuhan-la...
So on the other hand, for lab leak, only these needs to be satisfied.
1. They were doing GoF research on viruses trying optimise for human transmission.
2. Someone had a bad day and didn't follow the strict procedures, and ended up getting infected with a super charged virus.
What makes the above far fetched is only if you take the chinese researcher's word for granted, and accpet that there was no such research being conducted there, and no virus that was close enough was stored in the lab to start the research with. But without that, I think the lab leak is much more probably, and I think most experts will agree as well (They don't because they have a hard time doubting fellow reserchers without evidence).
1. That it was made in the lab and accidentally released
2. That it was made in the lab and released intentionally as some kind of biowarfare or population control.
(1) has been discussed as a definite possibility by credible scientists since day 1 (and although it's true that the mainstream media didn't really pick up on it, I don't see much evidence that they intentionally buried it)
(2) is straying very heavily into conspiracy theory territory.
I would be happy to "undown" you if you can provide evidence.
The origin of SARS-COV2 is still a mystery and there is not enough evidence to support any explanation so far.
The initial violent pushback and recent relaxation around the lab leak hypothesis is suspicious, but it might be unrelated to the truth.
Your comment bears some responsibility for that, btw. If you had posted something less flamebaity and more thoughtful, the subthread would probably have been better. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...