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Comment by zipdog | Hacker News Reader

Color 'launched' a few days after SXSW, and the founder wasn't particularly aware of the event or able to recognize the lost opportunity. SXSW would have given it the dense mass of people required to give a great first impression

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I found Bill Nguyen's response quite strange when asked about this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGdwY6h5JI&t=25m30s

"Robert(Scoble) is right, everyone's right, we should have done it, we could have done it, we didn't because I don't like conferences. Again, my bad, it's my responsiblity, I just didn't want to do it."

Wow. I don't know if Bill Nguyen realizes this, but when you have a consumer based product, you NEED to launch it when there are a lot of potential customers to use it! That is without a doubt the worst thing that I've ever heard an entrepreneur say as long as I've been following tech. When this company crashes and burns, perhaps Mr. Nguyen will realize that being an entrepreneur sometimes means having to do things you don't want to do. Did you really think Steve Jobs was excited to go to Redmond, proverbial hat in hand to ask Bill Gates for a bailout? Of course not! But he did it because it was necessary for the long term health of the company. I truly think Bill Nguyen doesn't get it.

While Color has made a lot of mistakes, Bill Nguyen has accomplished more than 99.x% of entrepreneurs. He wanted something different from his product launch for whatever reason, maybe simply because he didn't feel like dealing with the madness of SXSW. It wasn't the best choice, but it's a far cry from him being clueless. I'm certainly in no position to question his abilities as an entrepreneur, and definitely not for one or two questionable decisions.

From his comments though, the only reason that they didn't launch at SXSW was bacause he didn't "like" conferences.

Honestly, it seems to me that he was either too hubristical or naïve.

It's not just the regular bump, but SWSX was practically made for this sort of app.

I only wish I could "short" these types of stupid startup investments.

I haven't used any of them, but you could try arbitrary betting sites. Someone has to be willing to take the bet, which would be an entertaining way of putting one's money where one's forum-mouth is. Betable.com seems like the best fit for non-sports actual-money bets.

Longbets.org would let you make an idealistic point. (They don't let you keep your winnings; they have to go to a charity.)

Smarkets.com plays with real money, but seems targeted towards sports and current events.

[Disclaimer: I'm an officemate of Smarkets.]

The reason for this is liquidity. You've got to have enough people interested in an event to get effective price discovery, and if you're making money on the commission then it's entirely about maximising traded contract volume.

Publicity is only any use if you have a good product.