DraftKings: a $21B SPAC betting it can hide its black market operations
hindenburgresearch.com
hindenburgresearch.com
The BTi/CoreTech CEO was formerly the CEO (and previously CTO) of SpotOption, the binary option scam run out of Ramat Gan, Israel.[1] That was a big operation. Out front were the fake "binary option brokers", in reality bucket shops, such as Banc de Binary. SpotOption provided the back-end services, while the front companies ran call centers to recruit more suckers. Some of the front companies appeared to be operated directly by SpotOption, although that was never entirely clear.
Until 2017, it was legal for Israeli companies to scam non-Israelis in this way.[2] When the binary option business was made illegal in Israel, the companies were given three months to move to another country. "Officials say that numerous Israeli-owned binary options firms have already begun moving to countries where the activity has not yet been banned." SpotOption moved to Bulgaria.
The scam goes on, under new names.[3] "Since then, some scammers have shifted to schemes involving forex trading, CFD or cryptocurrency speculation."
So that's the back story here.
[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/sec-charges-israels-main-binar...
[2] https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/israel-bans-bin...
[3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/german-police-raid-call-center...
If I broke into the homes of millions of people to fleece them of their life savings I'd never be seeing the outside of a prison but these guys do it via a confidence scam and the internet and never see the inside of a prison. Then they become CEO of another company and start all over agin.
I stop believing in democracy when I read stories like these.
The Israeli crackdown came only after the scam was starting to hurt Israel's foreign relations.[2] Israel's "public diplomacy" minister:
“Leaving aside the profound moral questions this raises,” [referring to reports estimating that billions of dollars have been stolen from unwitting customers by fraudulent Israeli binary options firms], “I come from the field of foreign policy, protecting Israel from delegitimization and BDS [the boycott, divest and sanction movement]… These activities threaten Israel’s legitimacy. [The industry] will “contribute to those who want to delegitimize us if these charges turn out to be absolutely true. It’s very, very disturbing… horrible.”
So now there's a large community of scammers who, having been kicked out of binary options in Israel, are looking for new areas in which to operate. Forex, contracts for difference, and cryptocurrency scams have been found. DraftKings has some of the same people involved.
This is one of the worst things that can happen to a country - developing a large, successful criminal class. It's really hard to get rid of them, and they may end up running the country, as happened to Russia after the downfall of the USSR.
[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/topic/binary-options/
[2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/michael-oren-backs-knesset-pro...
It kind of is, though. The voters voted to protect themselves. And while you could think of that as selfish and not be wrong, at least they were able to protect themselves against a well-funded lobby that almost certainly would have liked to prevent them.
What does it matter if those countries are democratic or not?
Finance is too big to fail.
Number must go up or everything breaks and there is chaos in the streets. If we hold huge scale financial criminals accountable, it could spark financial contagion and number may not go up.
Virtually all countries are in this boat to some extent.
Money talks... in all systems of government.
Not related to your main point, but I was reading about historical bucket shops on wikipedia yesterday. It's my understanding that they are inherently a scam. They are basically people betting on the movement of stocks without ever taking a position in the stock market. They were outlawed in the US in the 20s.
Are you using the same definition I am, and in practice are modern bucket shops basically always a vehicle for fraud? (I mean, why wouldn't you just buy the stock if you are legit. The barrier in 2021 is so low.)
With a real broker, the broker is not taking any risk. They just take a commission between buyer and seller. With a bucket shop, the broker has a risk, so it's in their interest to make the customer lose.
A big market move can wipe out a bucket shop. See "Madoff scam". Madoff was a bucket shop operator. The assets his statements said the investors owned did not really exist.
US market makers have to settle and pay within three days. (Was that changed to two days?) Missing that deadline is a huge event and puts a market maker out of business within hours. See Bear Sterns, although that was a slightly different situation. Because the business does not allow long-term outstanding balances, it doesn't lend itself to scams.
British bookmakers are highly regulated. "UK licensed operators are required to hold customer deposits and stakes in ring fenced independent accounts in case they do fail".
The binary options business thrived in the UK for a while because they were considered gambling by the financial regulator and a financial product by the gambling regulator. That ended in April 2018, when they were banned.
An exchange, much like a ponzi scheme, could spend 10% of customer deposits and no one would notice until there is a 'run on the bank'. Similarly, they could choose to not execute orders to effectively take a position in the market - if the market moves in their direction gains can be huge, but if it moves against them it can be disastrous.
There's a whole gamut of different kinds of bucket shops, some being on the less shady side others on the outright take your money and don't let you withdraw it side.
I am no longer a Disney fan, considering their influence on children and families
https://www.lineups.com/betting/how-disney-became-a-part-own...
Note: I can't blame them after their resorts closed due to COVID, they were pressured by investors to ramp up profit - ex: canceling stock dividends, investing heavily in Disney+ content, get into sports gambling. But being so close to children (family values), having their corporate values corrupted was a big disappointment.
Steamboat Willie was created in 1928. It won't enter public domain until 2024 (assuming Disney isn't successful in extending copyright yet again...)
Disney raided the public domain to build it's animated films empire, then pulled up the drawbridge to the magic kingdom behind themselves.
How does that make you feel?
Accepting that there are bad actors and actively supporting them are 2 different activities.
And they do sell steamboat merch, or have in the recent past:
https://www.lego.com/en-nz/product/steamboat-willie-21317
I don't see it going into the public domain. Steamboat Willie should have entered public domain in 1956 and Disney keeps winning.
If a company chooses to rise its stock price by buybacks, shady business practices (SPACs, ads) and covering with PR, or investing in R&D to create real value.
Do you think upper management won’t have a say in all its brand constituents? Disney can brew an entire generation of children values with its animation movies, then upsell them when they become adults- in fact that is Disney+’s strategy. https://insidethemagic.net/2020/11/disney-plus-star-mature-c...
I was making a different point - there is a legal entity at the top which is really just a holding company akin to Berkshire Hathaway. Inside that entity there are a number of completely different businesses. Disney (the thing humans think of when you say Disney) is one of them. ESPN is another. ABC is another. You can see an overview here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company
Some of them broadly work together strategically. Some do not.
[1] https://www.pastemagazine.com/politics/walt-disney/walt-the-...
I might also add their growing influence on advertising, by leveraging these media channels https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/disney-wraps-upfront-tv-adv...
Everyone smells money on this industry and is trying to capture market share (ex: Microsoft Bing and Amazon Search). Disney might not be that different than Google after all, except for targeting a different demographic (closer to Facebook) - making it more disturbing.
Highly recommend the read: https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/
“Infamous” short sellers play a big part in public market ethics after all - contrary to current Reddit sentiment. The real villains hide behind anonymous forums like WSB, using social media media to pump and dump stocks and change the public narrative.
Hindenburg also published this piece to emphasize the importance and dispel the negativity of short sellers https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/
If the entire market doesn't care, as it shouldn't, then its merely informative and helps more investors be aware of the great revenue printer.
If the market freaks out because they think others will freak out, those traders are the stupid ones and Hindenburg played the gullible people.
From what I read, the money losing company will likely have some brand conscious companies disassociate, while the money winning company will continue printing revenue.
To abstract it a bit for the sake of argument: the police profit from policing, and can continue to do so as long as it remains a societal net good -- if it tips into nepotism then of course it should be corrected.
I view these sorts of firms as a mechanism of reversion to the mean.
If they profit from it, good for them.
Contrast this shorting behavior with massive scale market manipulation done by some multinational powerhouses with strong political connections.
In the absence of any meaningful regulation/enforcement by the FTC/DOJ/SEC/etc, these mechanisms are what the world is left with. Kind of like class action lawsuits, I would prefer a better mechanism, but at least it provides some mechanism to combat these things.
> Based on conversations with multiple former employees, a review of SEC & international filings, and inspection of back-end infrastructure at illicit international gaming websites, we show that SBTech has a long and ongoing record of operating in black markets.
> Contrary to representations made to Oregon’s state lottery, a former employee told us SBTech had extensive operations in Iran, violating local laws in a market subject to heavy U.S. sanctions. We were told SBTech knowingly operated there for 4-5 years with the founder directly overseeing the operation.
The US does seem to have a lot of puritan hang-ups not helped by local gambling monopolys.
Surprised that draft kings don't go with one of the UK online gaming firms.
You'd rather have illegal off course betting ala Peaky Blinders or like IRL my Great Great Great Uncle ran in Birmingham (does make watching peaky Blinders interesting)
It looks like TFA author is correct that they structured the transfer specifically to avoid Meckenzie or the trust falling within the definition of “beneficial ownership” that would trigger a 13D reporting obligation and since they transferred 0.7% of outstanding shares (less than 1% with a bit of wiggle room for market movement) I’m assuming the shares were transferred to an irrevocable trust so they’d be outside the scope of Form 4 unless he’s serving as trustee which is unlikely (although, not entirely impossible) judging by the way the disclosure is phrased in his SEC filing:
> On May 26, 2021, Mr. Meckenzie transferred his beneficial interest in 19,075,875 shares of Common Stock (the “Shares”) for no consideration to a trust for the benefit of his spouse and children and remoter issue and for which an independent trustee has been appointed (the “Trust”), and the Trust immediately transferred the Shares to a company (the “Company”) wholly-owned by the Trust (the “Transfers”). Mr. Meckenzie does not exercise voting or dispositive power over the Shares or have a right to reacquire the Shares. As a result of the Transfers, Mr. Meckenzie no longer has or shares, directly or indirectly, voting or investment power over the Shares.
If he’s acting as co-trustee alongside an independent trustee and phrasing it in such a way to insinuate he’s not at all involved that would be very shady indeed.
It frequently happens with short-focused groups. There are dramatically fewer hits to be had on the short side of the sort like Nikola, than there are hits to be had on the long side (you could have practically closed your eyes and tossed darts at cloud stocks and hit homerun after homerun after homerun for the past decade). Inevitably short groups get desperate and overreach, constantly walking the line between revealing something legitimately suspicious and conjuring a fake short tale (they do that through blending the story, one part something bad, three or four parts bull, and the one bad thing is meant to fool people into believing it's all super bad). Which isn't to suggest that shorts are any worse than lying pumpers / bulls that blast positive propaganda all over the Internet, rather, it's that there are always far fewer short homeruns to be had inherently (outside of comprehensive black swan events like the banking & housing crisis). As such the shorts are stuck in a far more difficult segment with fewer legitimate targets, and I think it pushes them toward desperation more often than almost anywhere else (perhaps outside of penny stock pumpers).
In general these israeli startups tend to be way overvalued
SPAC: special-purpose acquisition company[1]
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special-purpose_acquisition_co...
Which then, to me, boils this all down to: A) the due diligence was sufficient and the lawyers signed off on everything or B) this is some sort of scheme to launder money and the whole thing is dirty.
Or, C) they did their due diligence and decided it was worth the risks.
Whats the revenue multiple or the price to equity ratio on a brothel? If you don't know, thats the reason to float those shares.
People treat being publicly traded as a reward, and thats the mistake that clouds their judgement.
Yeah, duh. Isn't that the whole point?
Any of our HN readers playing around with shorting the stock of public companies as an individual investor?
One thing I have learned is that a SPAC or any company with a low stock price may have low liquidity, particularly for longer-dated options. This risks making a short position dramatically less profitable. So SPACs end up not being the gold mine for shorts that you might expect.
For me a short position is not about speculating but instead about being strategically "long volatility". Which means you can actually make money when the rest of your stocks (which are "short volatility") are tanking and provide a better return for your portfolio. So I now try to always have PUTs open (along with CALLs that balance each other out).
Don't buy your short position with margin: that introduces short volatility to what should be a long volatility position.
This seems really risky without any institutional backing. If the market is volatile or "irrational" (WSB + GME for example), you can be margin called and lose a lot of money even if you're eventually right. Unlike a normal equity you can't just hold your short through volatility.
1) These markets aren't "black market"...they are unregulated. Operating in unregulated markets is fairly normal, investors don't like it because it is risky but there are other operators doing this (Entain is one). 2) It is also fairly normal to white label your product in Asia. Betfair does this, almost everyone does this because the Asian market is the largest in the world. Again, totally unregulated but it is not particularly shady (there are larger gambling companies than DraftKings in Asia owned by individuals). 3) The FBI has repeatedly accused people in this business of being linked to the Triads. So far, this has been unproved but, whether this is true or not, these businesses are legitimate and are some of the largest gambling companies in the world.
I don't doubt that the merger pre-listing is suspicious, this is why SPACs aren't a very good idea. I don't doubt that DK is an overpriced PoS (their marketing RoI is terrible). But, as ever, much of what people just coming to the industry write is nonsense (and usually related to whether they grew up somewhere where gambling was illegal...the ironic thing about the weird moralism about gambling in the US is that the unregulated companies are usually far more ethical than firms operating in the US).