NERC Warns Energy Shortfalls Almost Inevitable This Summer

Wow, the ERCOT numbers don't seem to have held.. from this article:

> On May 6, ERCOT said, citing its final summer seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) that it should have enough generation to meet a summer 2021 peak demand of 77,144 MW—which is nearly 5 GW higher than the current summer system-wide peak demand record of 74,820 MW set on Aug. 12, 2019. The SARA anticipates 86,862 MW of resource capacity will be available during summer peak demand hours, and it suggests the region will have a 15.7% reserve margin this summer, slightly higher than NERC’s evaluation. ERCOT’s reserve margin is based on “an accounting of load reduction resources that can be deployed by ERCOT during Energy Emergency events,” the grid entity said. ERCOT’s total resource capacity figure of 86.9 GW, however, includes only 64.1 GW of thermal and hydro resources, and it is counting on 4,808 MW of planned gas-fired, solar, and wind capacity additions.

For those who haven't been impacted -- Texas is in another rolling outage scenario. Peak demand neared 75GW and there was ~9GW of thermal and 3GW of renewables offline. So for the second time in a few months, spot rates surpassed $1,500/MWh. What a mess;

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-ne...