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TX0098812

> Surveys show anywhere from 25% to upwards of 40% of workers are thinking about quitting their jobs.

How does this compare to the figure over a longer period of time?

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A few charts showing 20-year quit rates via FRED:

* ALL Non-Farm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR

* Professional and Business Services (which I believe captures software) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS540099QUL

List of all the options https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32247

Interesting. Looks like a rising trend since the last financial crises. The effect of corona seems to be limited to a dip around the beginning of the pandemic, presumably due to uncertainty. No great resignation wave though, judging by the graph.

No great resignation wave, are we looking at the same charts? Both charts have the highest values ever since they started tracking this in 2001, and we've only seen increases in monthly quits since the start of 2021.

All non-farm looks like the continuation of existing trends and professional and business services looks lower than existing trends.

This is the important question. At my previous job the results of internal surveys would have these fairly high numbers, like 20% of employees don't think they will be here in a year.

But if you looked at the previous year's numbers, it was something like 18% or 15%. And the previous year's actual attrition was closer to 5-8%. So perhaps you could extrapolate if you had the attrition rates combined with survey data, but surveys are a much weaker signal.

I am more impressed that people would confess to thinking of leaving their position to an internal survey. I have no confidence that a company sponsored survey will be confidential and 'worrisome' results would not be shared with my direct management.

Good point. That said, in many countries employee protection is solid enough that people would not need to worry. If within the EU, then GDPR regulations could also lead to pretty massive fines if a supposedly anonymous survey turned out not to be.

This is the real question. How many people are never actually considering leaving their job if another better opportunity comes along? The journalists asked a loaded question to exaggerate the idea that employees are ready to quit in droves because they don’t want to go back to the office or something. In reality many people are always looking for the next step in their career.

There was a similarly hyperbolic headline yesterday about a spike in resignations. Buried in the article it said that monthly employee turnover had moved from typical mid 1% to a higher mid 2% rate.

There might be a slight increase in turnover due to the hot job market and booming economy, but journalists like this one are working hard to make the situation sound like a dramatic change that’s going to change everything.

The next step is to ask yourself -why- journalists are asking loaded questions and pushing certain narratives. I don't believe it's coincidence, or just that they're just not very good at their jobs. There's economic, political, and social power to be gained for them and their ideology if they push these narratives.

Or they need to land clicks to put food on the table. Which individual journalists would you qualify as having economic, political, and social power?

100% agree that journalists emphasize the sensational for the clicks instead of the moderate and reasonable.

That said, I don't agree with this framing of your question with regard to "individual" journalists. It's unlikely that any "individual" journalist has economic, political, and social power. Journalists' power results from their collective efforts as a group. I would be hard-pressed to name more than five individual NYT reporters but collectively, the NYT has unquestionable social and political power, if not economic. The NYT's angles on stories, its decisions to pursue certain trends and not others, its portrayals as somethings as good and others as not good, etc. - these efforts have tremendous power and shape society.

Why do you think someone like Bezos was so interested in buying WaPo? To anyone who fails to appreciate the power of journalism, start with Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion.

Exactly. I'm sure people are often thinking about quitting their jobs, but are they actually likely to quit within the next 12 months or are they just thinking about it?

Well another way to frame this is "X% are willing to quit their jobs if they can find a better offer" but only a fraction of that actually manage to find that something better. Not being able to do so could be due to those employee's shortcomings, but more likely its about how many better jobs there are and how competitive it is to get those jobs.

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