Again, you're making a speculative "for the greater good" argument. That's all fine and well, but that's a different question as to whether my
personal risk outweighs the benefit or not.
We already have the situation that vector-virus COVID vaccines are likely deadlier to younger women than the virus itself. Of course, having all these women vaccinated may well have saved more lives in total, but it would still be immoral to recommend it to them, if their personal risk from the vaccination is higher than from the virus.
> When masks come off there will be a sharp uptick in unvaccinated people getting covid and dying...
In relative terms, but probably not in absolute terms.
> ...the current majority of people that get covid and die are the unvaccinated by a large, large margin.
That's neither here nor there. If you vaccinated 90% of the population, at an idealized 90% efficacy, half the COVID deaths would be in the vaccinated group. What does that tell you about individual risk? Nothing, because it doesn't take into account prevalence in a population that is 90% vaccinated.
I don't doubt that the vaccine is effective, but the absolute risk reduction, for my age group, at current prevalance is probably around 1% (like in the trials). In Israel, the vaccination rate is below 60%, but prevalence is close to zero.