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Comment by drewvolpe | Hacker News Reader

I do: cloud computing and mobile.

5 years from now, it won't be a windows world. Consumers will be spending most of their time using iOS, Android, and Windows Mobile devices. On the server, a large % of apps will be written on a layer above the OS (GAE, Azure, Heroku, DjangoZoom, ...).

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I'd love to see that happen, but we have been predicting the demise of Windows since the last century but Windows is still going strong. Inertia is a powerful thing.

I certainly wouldn't go so far as to bet that Windows will go away, but I think that previous predictions about Windows demise were predicated on it being replaced on people's PC's with something else.

That never happened (and I agree may not ever happen), but I think the growing widespread adoption of non-pc computing devices (phones, tablets, tv's, etc.) definitely has a fighting chance. Within ten years, I'd bet that the vast number of people will be accessing the internet primarilly from something besides a PC.

Everyone was thinking years ago that no one could displace IE as the dominant browser - that Microsoft could and would pull every dirty trick in the book to kneecap the competition and outcompete with mass developers.

Now look - Firefox is sitting comfy, Chrome is a rising star, and on mobile, webkit browsers owns the whole place.

Windows can and will fall. If Microsoft is smart, they'll be the ones that put it to rest (like Apple had the mock funeral for OS9) on their own terms.

The difference is that with a web browser, you can switch from IE to a superior browser and all your favorite web sites will still work (apps built for IE6 compatibility notwithstanding). This isn't true of switching from x86 Windows to some-other-OS on some-other-architecture -- your existing special-purpose business apps won't work. You have to switch everything out.

That's not to say that Windows can't get displaced, but that it's a lot different from displacing IE. You can't just switch from Windows and have nearly everything working the same from day 1.

Most applications aren't speed critical, so on some-other-OS on some-other-architecture you'd probably get away with virtualization / emulation.

> 5 years from now, it won't be a windows world. Consumers will be spending most of their time using iOS, Android, and Windows Mobile devices.

That sounds about right, except what is Windows Mobile doing there? It's a pretty tight race for third place, and I wouldn't bet on Microsoft there.

Who would you bet on? The only other players are RIM/Blackberry and WebOS and I am not too sure how well they will hold up.

Yeh, I put them on the list because I do think they'll slide into the third slot. Their deal with Nokia gives them good reach, especially in emerging markets. Also, they have a huge warchest of funds and the patience to loose piles of money in order to get market share in an important market (XBox, Bing, ...).

RIM has much more marketshare in developed markets, and it can still turn things around.

WebOS has a technology advantage over Microsoft's offering, but a bad starting point. Still, I would not rule HP out.

But to be honest, I am not sure third place will be a significant thing. The mobile market is looking to repeat history with how things turned out on the desktop. Do we care much about third place there? Not really.

I work in mobile software, and I don't know anyone who thinks "how things turned out on the desktop" is a good guide for the future. See also, http://www.asymco.com/2011/07/06/the-post-pc-era-will-be-a-m...

This can't possibly be true. It may be true for home users and hobbyists, but people running business applications need screen real estate and a keyboard on which you can touch type. That's the Achilles heel of mobile, and it's not going away.

The idea here though is that mobile devices will eventually become versatile enough to be used in these environments. My phone has an HDMI output and bluetooth capability, what, other than current usage patterns, is keeping Android/iOS from allowing you to plug in a monitor and hook up a keyboard to a phone? Hell, they are already doing it (albeit poorly): http://www.motorola.com/Consumers/US-EN/Consumer-Product-and...

The point is, I already carry around a phone in my pocket, and eventually, when I get into the office, I will hook it into my monitors/keyboard/mouse, and work away. The PC cannot keep up, and will eventually be replaced by this paradigm.

I'm skeptical. I don't see more than a tiny fraction of corporations allowing their employees connection to the corporate network with a personal device. And they're not going to give you something that easy to lose if it's a key to their data. Too many privacy and security headaches.

Then there's the question of computing power. Recent mobiles look powerful, but that's because you're comparing them to older mobiles and not to desktops/laptops. The MIPS you can squeeze into a mobile will always be constrained by heat, and you're just not going to get anything like the same snappy response you would from a dedicated machine.

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