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How low does the energy price have to be that someone could currently expect to profitably mine Bitcoin on commodity hardware? (I read "without permission" that one cannot expect to have specialized hardware available as import of mining rigs could be regulated).

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It's a question of opportunity cost of electricity, not absolute numbers:

- You live in a place where the "cost" of mining = Electricity + Amortized cost of mining rig.

- Someone else lives in a place where "cost" of mining = (Electricity + Amortized Blackmarket Rig Cost) - (5% Inflation per month - 30% reduction in remittance fee -etc..)

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