> Revolutions aren't won by the people they are won by soldiers.

While I might agree with you in these post-modern times, this is not accurate to all of history.

The other theory are mass strikes, as seen very recently. A regime won't survive ongoing mass strikes.

I think this is bad for Lukashenko. The more the EU sanctions Belarus, the more Belarus has to rely on Russia. But the more Belarus has to rely on Russia, the greater Russia's power over Belarus, and the greater the likelihood that Belarus turns into a Russian puppet state in which all the real power and real decisions are being made in Moscow. That outcome threatens to deprive Lukashenko of real power and turn him into a mere figurehead.