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Comment by defaultname | Hacker News Reader

I'm not sure if this is a "reality check", and it sounds suspiciously similar to the "population explosion" claims.

US electricity and gasoline consumption has declined since 2010, despite a growing GDP and almost 20 million more people. Efficiency and conservation have achieved enormous gains, and every renewable source that comes online displaces an existing one.

This has occurred across every developed nation. Japan is using 20% less energy today than it did in 2000. Germany, France, Italy, Canada -- all below 2000.

As developing countries bring more of their population into more modern accouterments, of course the total is increasing -- for now -- but thankfully most are starting with a much greater mix of reasonable sources.

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I agree that Europe is having real success. But we need to also keep in mind where energy is being used the most now and in the future. In the long-term Europe going 100% renewable by itself doesn't change the global energy picture much.

Displacing a global energy supply in one country keeps the resource available and the price lower so that another country may use more of it. We may have actual success with reducing global coal usage soon since it does not transport easily.

I can't find data to back up your claims about the US decreasing electricity and gasoline consumption. Do you mean per capita? Meanwhile natural gas consumption is increasing. I also suspect that the US has outsourced much of our energy usage to China in the form of manufacturing. China now uses much more energy that the US (although not per capita).

Developing countries may have a head start with renewables now, but AFAIK their overall energy usage still implies increased fossil fuel usage for the world.

I don't believe this means we are in a hopeless situation. I think it means that Europe and the US must prioritize using their wealth to further develop the technology for carbon neutral energy and to demonstrate it so that it becomes the default energy source for the entire world.

No, I mean in total. US energy consumption across the board has declined. Even in total energy consumption (every plane, train, automobile, factory, office, microwave, etc) the US is currently about equal with 2000. I mean, it was equal before COVID hit, and is measurably lower now (which will likely continue as fewer people commute)

21 years later, with an improving quality of life, and almost 50 million extra people (almost 20% more), aggregate energy use for the entire nation is static and declining. There remain enormous opportunities for efficiency, a lot of it simply in normal ongoing modernization.

Wind and solar are already cheaper than any other source but natural gas, which itself is a precarious source that most nations aren't in a geopolitical situation to rely upon.

I find it odd that you question my facts given that there is literally nothing that claims otherwise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

Where are you getting your data from? I see here [1] that energy usage is static now (but not since 2000), but it is not declining. But that means it is declining per capita. But again, I would like to see manufacturing outsourcing taken into account.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

In 2020, total energy consumption was significantly below 2010, which was my original claim. In 2020, total energy consumption was far below 2000 as well. Total energy consumption declined. Continually saying "where are your sources" when they're the canonical sources of a simple Google search doesn't make my statement untrue.

"But again, I would like to see manufacturing outsourcing taken into account."

Groan. This is going down that incredibly boring path where someone must "win" however strained and nonsensical their argument becomes.

Every developed nation has effectively capped energy usage and started to reduce it (despite continuing population growth). Every developing nation is starting with a much better foundation where they have extremely competitive options that aren't the catastrophe that prior ones were.

Thanks for editing to cite your sources. They seem to show a slight increase in energy usage since 2010. You must be using 2020 pandemic data as your comparison which is very misleading. But 2018 is the same as 2007, so I think it is fair to call energy usage flat.

But the entire point of the chart in my original comment is that even if members of the developed world are reducing energy usage and lowering carbon emissions (which is at best marginally true of the US), the rest of the world by definition is more than making up for it whether or not they are also using renewables as well.

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