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>I saw some historian last year say, "there will be a world before covid and a world after covid", and I thought that was hyperbolic. But now I see the truth in the matter - it will not be some obvious, monumental, instantaneous change, but rather the slow, creeping change where a few years from now, we'll look back and see that society is just different.

One thing to keep in mind is that this is nothing new. Plague has been with humanity for as long as we have existed. And yet, here we were in 2019 living our lives "normally" after dealing with those in the past. I think there will certainly be a generational cultural divide caused by this which separates us from those who were too young to remember, much like the Depression was for our grandparents. But people will go back to being people regardless.

I agree it is nothing new, but that's the point being made, which is that plagues cause discontinuities with societies - they are a driver of change. And that will happen here, too. People will go back to being people, I agree, but just different people, in some ways :)

Also, I have thought about the generational divide part, and tell me son that he'll be telling his kids and grandkids about what it was like to live through covid!

Does it count as a plague when the average age of death is greater than the average life expectancy?

Maybe these long term changes were less necessary than the previous ones.

Over 150,000 people under the age of 65 died. It spared the young, fortunately, but that doesn't affect it's classification as a "plague".

Politico just had a decent piece on some of the smaller societal changes…

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/31/covid-rules-liquor-...

…though arguably expanded telemedicine isn’t “small”.

On the subject of masks. If it didn’t stick after the Spanish flu, what makes you think it is different this time?

Different people and cultures - I don't think it'll stick for all but there are people who enjoy wearing masks. They like hiding behind them, or they feel safe. There are others who use them as a way to gain victim status in society - these are unique present-day phenomenon.

>There are others who use them as a way to gain victim status in society

Can you elaborate on this?

Sure - there are people in society who gain status by being a victim of some injustice or event. It means others will tend to give them social sympathy points, cater to their needs, and pay attention to them.

In the case of masks - some will wear a mask for no scientific reason, just that they can become a victim. "Sorry I can't attend that event because it's not mask friendly." "Sorry do you think you could wear a mask when we're in a meeting together?" "Sorry I don't go to happy hours b/c of my mask" etc.

It's going to be a whole subculture. There will be blogs, lifestyle magazines, you name it. "How to live your best life when others aren't masking up" - "top 10 skin friendly masks to wear" whatever.

-edit-

And just to make it clear I always wear a mask and follow state and CDC guidelines. I don't care about wearing one. Whatever the gov't says is what I'm going to follow. These are just personal observations.

I don't think it'll stick for all but there are people who enjoy wearing masks

I can't see that being any more than a small minority. I don't mind wearing one but it is an inconvenience.

People who are immuno-compromised, of course will want to wear masks

People who are currently ill with some respiratory illness and don't want to share it.

And finally I was reading an article about a few people with various negative facial features that they wished to cover (a mole, a neurological condition that caused unwanted lip movements, a facial scar, etc.) have really appreciated the cover of wearing a mask.

> People who are immuno-compromised, of course will want to wear masks

> People who are currently ill with some respiratory illness and don't want to share it.

These are both new to western society. I do think it was always a bit weird we weren't wearing masks when sick before last year, but maybe it was a good thing? Idk.

The immuno-compromised thing is bizarre. Like where were masks before 2020 for those individuals? There are varying degrees of this, and I'm sure a tiny amount of people who were at high enough risk were wearing one, but the vast, vast majority weren't.

> And finally I was reading an article about a few people with various negative facial features that they wished to cover (a mole, a neurological condition that caused unwanted lip movements, a facial scar, etc.) have really appreciated the cover of wearing a mask.

Yea I can see that, though I would suggest it's likely to be an bad idea psychologically. The "reveal" aspect of the deformity or unpleasantness will be extremely traumatic for the revealer versus normalizing and acceptance.

I guess the immuno-compromised and those who currently have a mild respiratory infection now feel they have “permission” from society to wear a mask. A non-East Asian person wearing a mask two years ago would have attracted a range of unwelcome behaviour – quizzical looks (mildest), questions, comments, verbal or even physical abuse (worst-case scenario) – depending on who they encounter.

Personally, I hope our knowledge and scientific understanding improves with regard to the effectiveness of mask wearing in a non-medical environment to mitigate either spreading or being infected by pathogens.

I think you’re quite off-base with your assertion that someone wearing a mask would be met with violence. Nobody would care. You’d just say “oh I am immuno-compromised so I try not to get sick” and then that’s that. In fact more likely someone would go to great lengths to make you feel comfortable and help you out because generally people are sensitive to people who are sick or have health problems, especially in America. Somebody might have question you because it’s abnormal, but it isn’t any more abnormal or different then someone noticing you are wearing pink hair or a random interesting t-shirt.

I agree that people now feel they have permission, which is good because people who actually need to wear a mask should be able to wear one without being looked at strangely. But the vast majority of people who will continue to wear masks won’t fall in this category. Even after the Democratic administration (who I voted for) and CDC relaxed mask mandates people still wear them for no good reason. (They’re not sick, have no scientific reason for them, etc.)

Regarding violence, I explicitly envisioned this as a worst-case scenario.

As a young male of 20, I was a fan of heavy metal and used to have long hair. Because I was “different”, I used to have inner-city kids shout verbal abuse and throw stones at me (in daylight, walking home from college), have adult males try to start fights in pubs or on the streets and once had a random thug spit in my face as I cycled past while in a bad part of town. Even other friends who were taller and more physically imposing had to deal with similar crap if they were on their own. There are always going to be malicious people who will pick on anyone who’s different in some way. They’ll probably pick on anyone they think isn’t a threat but the less “different” you are, the better your chances are of avoiding unpleasantries.

Yea... I think that's just life, unfortunately. It could be long hair, it could be a mask, or it could be your skin color. Unfortunately there are a lot of morons in this world.

Add people with allergies to that list as well. I've realized how much my allergies are better in the spring (both last year and this year) as a result of wearing a mask when I'm outside.

And then there are people who think wearing a mask is a worthwhile thing to do to protect other people when they have some contagious respiratory disease. You might call this category "people with a sense of common decency."

Yea it’s a bit bizarre we’ve had this whole culture of not doing that (COVID-19 being irrelevant here). Remember the phrase “it’s going around the office”? Yea that’s going extinct.

This time we have a legitimate competitor on the world stage who absolutely swear that masks work and that anyone who denies that is killing their population unnecessarily.

We also have social media now, where people can completely inhabit their own worlds of "truth". I think the parent comment is onto something. Some people really are true believers now.

At this point I doubt they will be dissuaded, as long as there is a Trump-electorate sized rump (~30%) who continue masking. If that dwindles to, say, 10% or 15%, then I could imagine them feeling enough shame to come down off the ledge.

I’ve reread this several times. I’m not really sure what you are saying here? The biggest hint is the italicized “swears” are you saying that you think masks are a hoax?

No, I don't believe they're a "hoax". I believe they are a well-intentioned attempt to control viral spread. But just like during Spanish Flu, they have not meaningfully changed outcomes for localities that required them vs. those that didn't. The scientific consensus in Western medicine for 100 years after analysis of Spanish Flu, was that masks do not prevent or slow the spread of a respiratory pandemic. You'd need a respirator for that (N95 "mask"), and you'd need to wear it all the time given what we know now about airborne transmission of Sars-Cov-2. We will soon be returning to this consensus with any luck:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.18.21257385v...

"Randomized control trials have not clearly demonstrated mask efficacy against respiratory viruses, and observational studies conflict on whether mask use predicts lower infection rates. We hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use are associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates in the United States..."

"Conclusion: mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 growth surges. Containment requires future research and implementation of existing efficacious strategies"

It'll take a while to figure it out, but most of what I've read is coming to the opposite conclusion: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

A big issue is all the stupidity around "you don't need to wear masks in restaurants".

The capricious and hypocritical nature of masking policy is surely frustrating but I fail to see how that is relevant to whether or not they are effective.

We're talking about the science, not the public perception of the science, right?

Determining mask efficacy is made much more difficult when people aren't using them effectively. If people are going to restaurants, and having private (indoor!) parties, and going to churches, and any number of events where they don't wear masks, then the pathogen is able to still propagate around.

Now, if you are arguing that masks aren't effective because people won't actually wear them, then I agree that "wear masks" as a policy needs a lot of work. I'm saying if people actually wore masks when appropriate, then they are effective.

I'm not arguing that at all. I'm arguing that the cloth that you found in the junk drawer, and the surgical masks that you bought as a pack of 50 on Amazon, do not filter microscopic viral particles. They say so right on the label in many cases. The research I've read and linked also suggests that this is the case. Maybe in a few years you'll agree that it's common sense.

If you want to actually filter the air that you inhale and exhale I recommend an N95.

You don't need to filter out the viruses, you need to filter the aerosol the viruses are sitting in. That is a major plus of Covid, verification (repeatedly) and acceptance of that fact.

Except that we know now Sars-Cov-2 transmission is airborne. As the aerosol caught in your mask evaporates, the virus sheds into the surrounding air, where it is later contracted by someone else.

I think you'll be a little disappointed at the level of "acceptance" of mask wearing & efficacy going forward.

I am extremely skeptical masks will stick in suburban and rural areas.

Urban areas with mass transit? Maybe. I think wearing a mask on the Red Line during cold and flu season would be smart.

Agreed on mass transit, I also think wearing the mask outside during pollen season helped a bit with my allergies, so there's a few use cases where I'll probably still wear them. Especially because I've collected so many different designs at this point.

Mostly because the world is different now. Information and science was sparse then. We now have a strong body of evidence that masks help significantly with reducing the spread of at least some types of pathogens. However, I wouldn't shock me if we went back to no masks again. But it wouldn't shock me if they remained around on some level, either. Before 2020, in the US at least, it was bizarre to see someone wearing them. That has changed.

I sure hope masks will be mandatory in doctor's waiting rooms / hospitals.

Nothing better than being forced to go in person to a doctor to pick up a sick note for your employer (for a minor health issue like headache or whatever) and get sick while waiting in an unventilated room full of sick people coughing and sneezing.

We had 100 years to apply our better access to “information and science”. We had multiple recent flu outbreaks of SARS, MERS, and H1N1. But this time COVID is different. Because it killed more people? The people from 1918 weren’t stupid, they saw their friends and family die in much greater numbers. The day the mask mandate was repealed for vaccinated individuals, half the people at the grocery store don’t wear them anymore. Nevada, where I live, is only 40% vaccinated. There is of course momentum from the mandates, but all signals point to masks being shedded as soon as possible.

> it will not be some obvious, monumental, instantaneous change, but rather the slow, creeping change where a few years from now, we'll look back and see that society is just different.

Hasn't it always been like that ? History books make it look like the world radically changes step by step (printing press, the cinema, the radio cars, planes, &c.) but in reality it's always spread over decades.

If you live through these historical moments it's always a gradual change, it's only when you look back at history that you can pin point events (while discarding half of the story most of the time)

I definitely agree with your larger point, and the results of this pandemic will be of similar impact and rate of impact as other historical events. However, there are definitely moments that did have quick impact. 9/11 had immediate, significant, lasting impact to our lives, at least as far as traveling went, for instance.

Travel will also likely fundamentally change.

I suspect it will be another few years before the restrictions settle and find their level, and probably the same again before people start to relax and want to travel internationally to the same degree in the same numbers.

By which time we will have structural changes in the travel and airlines industries.

Sad. I preferred the old world :-(