There were also a number of HN stories posted early in the pandemic concerning the lab-leak hypothesis. These paint a ... complicated ... picture of that theory and those who advocated for it. Few of the submissions had any significant discussion, I'm simply going off what was submitted to HN.
Search, bound from 2020-1-1 to 2020-6-1: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1593475200&dateRange=custom&...
26 March 2020: Experts disagree on whether Covid-19 could have leaked from a research lab https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22695825 https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/experts-know-the-new-coronav... (Note this was from a modification of the above search)
28 March 2020: Scientific community MUST rally to expose likely leak from a Wuhan lab https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22710662 (no link)
6 April 2020: Trump says U.S. investigating whether virus came from Wuhan lab
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22886182 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-...
30 April 2020: Nobel Prize winner who discovered HIV says covid19 is from Wuhan lab,has HIV DNA https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23037036 https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-04-17/le-coronavirus-est-un... (Said Nobelist is an anti-vaxxer.)
1 May 2020: No evidence that deadly bat virus escaped Wuhan lab https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041789 https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/No-evidence-that-deadly-... Original source is a Washington Post article from 30 April (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/chinese-lab...)
4 May 2020: Australian intelligence knocks back US government's Wuhan lab virus claim https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23074121 https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-intellige...
10 May 2020: Germany Doubts US Claim of Wuhan Virus Lab Leak https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23130107 http://www.courthousenews.com/germany-doubts-us-claim-of-wuh...
18 May 2020: Busted: Pentagon Contractors’ Report on ‘Wuhan Lab’ Origins of Virus Is Bogus https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23223986 https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-contractors-report-on...
(Note that there may well have been other submissions which were flagged and killed, or which don't match my search terms --- I included one such addition based on a variant of terms.)
In general the early claims of a lab leak:
- Lacked any specific proof.
- Came from sources with questionable credibility.
- Were rejected by others with no specific allignment to those claiming the leak, and with general credibility.
I'll note that the leak hypothesis remains unproven, though the evidence supporting a serious, independent, and pointedly, non-Chinese-led investigation is mounting. I found the Bulletin of Concerned Scientists article a week or so back persuasive.
But the point remains that attributing an original cause to some event is complex, and requires a reality-based investigation grounded in facts rather than ideology or motivated reasoning. Much (though not all) of the lab-leak advocacy has been lacking in this objectivity, and even the most persuasive arguments to date make a case for the possible origin, not a certainty.
I'd argue that for the current outbreak the origin all but certainly does not matter in terms of steps taken to contain and end the outbreak. Preventive measures (themselves reflecting an evolution of understanding over time) and vaccines (rejected by a disappointing fraction of lab-leak enthusiasts) remain the most potent tools we have.
Consideration for costs, and prevention (or early alerting) of future outbreaks do depend in part on determining ultimate origin. That's something to keep an eye on, but not the principle concern of the moment.