Nice that something more than strongly worded letters was done.
It's perhaps somewhat similar to sanctions against Russia which were followed by Russia-imposed sanctions on importing e.g. cheese, which has the benefit of improving trade balance (as people aren't consuming imported products) and any discontent of the people is blamed on the western sanctions; the regime wants to ban certain things but it has less impact on people's satisfaction if the ban can be blamed on everyone else.
An interesting shift of the last decade or so of sanction wars is that sanctions must be targeted against the regime, not the people. Otherwise it's a bit of an own goal - you give the regime a bogeyman to point at.
As such, this seems like a good, pragmatic type of sanction. Few regular Belarusians will feel the impact, but it does strike at the regime, even if it seems like small change.
Moreover the people who actually like Lukashenko will probably be pretty indifferent to this. They weren't planning on flying to Berlin any time soon. I'm almost certain Putin will jump on the chance to have alternate routes to Russian tourist destinations opened up (possibly even subsidized, like he did for flights to Crimea).
I'm starting to wonder if Lukashenko/Putin wasn't counting on this kind of knee jerk reaction. If sanctions were on the cards anyway, with this stunt they got to pick the timing, reason and type.
Edit : not a popular analysis, it seems...
I don't think he's losing out that badly here. Indeed, increased isolation from the West may have been a goal from the outset. Having the West do it for him is even better.
Now even his supporters have to make every foreign flight through Moscow as a constant reminder of what great relations the potato czar has with rest of the world. Dictatorship are very sensitive to image issues (see Winnie the Pooh).
On the practical side, it starves Belarus of overflying fees. The stunt will cost them hundreds of millions, and hopfully further targeted sanctions will make whatever's left (and funneled into their private accounts by the regime) more difficult to spend.
Of course. That's why they goaded the West into sanctioning them for the most hypocritical reason they could.
"Western hypocrisy" is a key plank of Russian propaganda that works decently well at keeping them suspicious, afraid and angry at us. It's used similarly by Democrats on their base against Republicans and vice versa to great effect at keeping the base fired up.
Belarus is not Russia but I'm sure the same applies there.
>The stunt will cost them hundreds of millions
This is probably why RT stated that Putin was willing to step in to help out financially. I expect that was actually even agreed ahead of time.whol
Lukashenko on the whole would probably prefer that as much foreign aid and investment came from Russia as possible. It's his opponents who will want to demonstrate all the great stuff Western investment can do for the country.
And, of course, Putin would prefer it if we severed links given the strategic importance of the country. He doesn't want another Ukraine.
Why do you think this is the case? The regime isn't flying on a public airline. If you're a regular Belarusian trying to travel to/from the West, these actions are only making your life worse.
Now the only reason that i am able to travel to/through Russia to Belarus willy-nilly is because i have direct relatives that are now citizens\residents there. I have to have copies of their documents, like passport & document confirming that they are residents and are residing in Russia legally. During last year i had to forfeit a set of documents that would allow me to travel there[0]. Only reason why it worked was because border point was mostly analogue, and in general they were unable to verify that the doc was real. More of a loophole rather than straight hack but still.
Things are not great if you want to travel to\from EU by land. Since august-september 2020 "due to corona" you are allowed to travel "outside" once in 6 months over the land border [1]. There is no limitation on how people can _enter_ the country. Get a visa and you are good to go. Weird? yea. Dumb? hell yea. Think about that like it is an anemic attempt to stop people from leaving the country. Iirc before August there was no limits set by gov on how people can travel at all.
[0] https://russiamedtravel.ru/en/ [1] https://gpk.gov.by/covid-19/
The problem is that EU itself is closed due to COVID(we can't get visas renewed) + we have internal ban on transit through ground borders due to COVID(but most likely to prevent people from moving out permanently)
So essentially, with this ban it is hard to escape if situation goes south.
Which BTW brings up a question of big international corporations outsourcing to authoritarian countries. Should they be punished financially for being complicit in breaking human rights?
A dictator would be perfectly happy flogging peasants until the end of time, see north korea for reference.
Edit: s/Belorussian/Belorusian
And I expected such behavior, so I am pleasantly surprised.
You're are not the property of the country where you are a citizen. Especially, not if you live abroad.
Anyway, citizenship matters, it is one of the many elements that determine jurisdiction. The US taxes and prosecutes (!) his citizens anywhere in the world, for example; and extradition is a thing.
Legal protection to a foreign citizen abroad is extended by the host country, and that's really what the problem is here: the journalist was effectively protected by European law at all times (going from EU country to EU country with a EU airline), but Belarus invaded our legal space with a competing jurisdiction claim and enforced it with guns and subterfuge. That cannot be allowed.
Hehe, I'll admit that's not a good argument.
> but Belarus invaded our legal space with a competing jurisdiction claim...
They violated an international convention on to which they had signed. In turn it seems reasonable that we no longer extend any benefits pertaining to said convention.
Which is sort of exactly what we're doing.
As far as kidnapping or any other kind of forced movement goes, yes basically.
It's kind of a sign of weakness.
No, endless talk with no action is weak and pathetic. Mafia states will shit on you if you show unwillingness to stand for yourself. Biden lifted sanctions on Nord Stream and three days later you have this stunt. Let that be a lesson. Every incoming president has had such trial by fire.
Yes it will, because Belarus nor Russia are in a position for any serious confrontation. As soon as you call their bluff, they will retreat, as they have done many times before. Their power comes from YOUR FEAR and unwillingness to react appropriately to their provocations.
Both Rusia and Belarus are mafia states that serve as piggy banks to oligarchs, who belong to the global elite. When their status, access and financial wellbeing takes a hit from sanctions, oligarchs will tell their public-facing puppets to tone down and seek better relations.
Oligarhs are not hermits like Kim from the Best Korea or leaders of Middle Eastern theocracies. Their families live in the west, because Russia is a dangerous shithole; they own luxury apartments in NYC and houses in the best parts of London. They spend their holidays in Los Angeles, Southern France and elsewhere. Their kids and wives want to live like the rich people they see on Instagram and in Hollywood movies. They are not willing to give this westernized life up, and that's the string to pull them by: identify key power brokers and their inner circles and target them mercilessly.
They've already started two wars, murdered countless people home and abroad, blown up ammo depots on NATO territory, shot down an airliner, now hijacked another. How stupid can you be to continue this appeasement. Why should they stop?