Wuhan lab staff sought hospital care in November 2019
reuters.com
reuters.com
How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27184998 - May 2021 (235 comments)
More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27160898 - May 2021 (341 comments)
The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27071432 - May 2021 (537 comments)
Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26750452 - April 2021 (618 comments)
Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26540458 - March 2021 (985 comments)
The Lab Leak Hypothesis - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25640323 - Jan 2021 (229 comments)
I don't deny any of this hypothetical lab interference but this new thread hit the top 5 of HN in under 30 minutes with no comments. I don't like that.
Why is the view being pushed so hard?
Edit: I wrote more about this here if anyone wants more: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27268101
Maybe I'm just overreacting to the reposts.
This story has other advantages (from the point of view of the story). It is intriguing in a way that's perfect for internet detectives, like a board game with a low barrier to entry: you can get up and running with a few links in a few minutes, jump in and play. It's personally relevant to everyone who was affected by the pandemic, i.e. everyone. And the stakes are high geopolitically, so it's got all the energy of that drama as well (not great for discussion quality, but fabulous if you're the story and want to spread).
I'm just describing the psychology of a story like this. I'm not putting down anyone who's interested in it or who's not interested in it, and I'm certainly not commenting on the story itself—only why it's easy to understand why people would be posting it, and why it would get both upvotes and flags—from different people, of course.
You're not the only person who is reacting to the reposts. Based on past experience, we should all brace ourselves for throngs more of them. Maybe this would be a good place to repeat the principles of MOTs and SNI:
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
I didn't really think that the current story was SNI, given that we've had several other major threads recently, but it's a borderline case and the community seems to have voted otherwise.
The past few weeks, all the above parties did a complete about-face, with no apology. Vox silently edited one of its March 2020 articles "debunking" claims that Covid-19 originated in a lab leak https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1396769717805780994 . The fact that the mainstream media can so effectively censor a theory against the prescribed narrative is extremely harmful to our democracy.
It makes you question what other narratives being pushed today are similarly misguided.
The evidence is beginning to be stacked against them so they need to run with it so it looks like the broke the story.
What happened was that a conspiracy theory was generally dismissed because it was being pushed in the right wing media, with literally zero evidence to support it.
There weren’t “experts with no evidence” of the non existence of a lab leak. There were experts claiming that there is no evidence of a lab leak.
What we need is to prevent further such incidents in the future. So if the question of accountability is off the table, lets just think about what the consequence would be if the virus was an accidential lab escape (from any country). We should immediately take measures such that that never happens again. That means increasing the safety measures and transparency, and possibly banning gain-of-function research.
Unfortunately, the undercurrent of the whole discussion is "who is to blame", not "how to prevent this again". (Also, I think this is one of the reasons they tried to downplay the outbreak in the beginning.)
Nobody would have trouble entrusting bio-research to Taiwan or South Korea.
I mean we could just take it out of the debt we owe to China. China owns over $1 trillion in US debt. It wouldn't cover all the expenses the US had due to this pandemic but it would help. I would agree that almost nobody on the US would actually advocate for it.
> Unfortunately, the undercurrent of the whole discussion is "who is to blame", not "how to prevent this again".
You have to know how it started and who is to blame in order to put in safe guard against it in the future.
it is the opposite of accountability.
you say face before scientific truth but the people pushing this theory are not focused on scientific truth anymore than you think China is.
'Because justice, moral high ground and emotions are important to people, and people elect governments'
From a meta "gain of function" POV, China has gained from the pandemic. It has kick started its economy with months of head start, while all of the BRIC and western competition have suffered through the pandemic.
China hasn't lost a single opportunity to let it be known that the superiority of their governance methods and ideology has a hand in how well they've handled the pandemic. Their main competition: US (in front) and India (much behind) have particularly suffered and been the subject of ridicule among the Chinese.
The winds of change are heralded in by emotion and perception. Being able to associate the grief of millions to a single regime is the kind of weapon that itching to be wielded. (to a lesser degree the democrats already wielded it in ousting Trump)
It can permanently damage the credibility of mainstream media organizations and social media giants. It can breed nationalism and anti-PRC sentiment. It can legitimize scepticism towards empirical science and make heterodox/conspiratorial ideas harder to dismiss. It can be used to break the break the stranglehold of elite media/universities as unquestionable source of truth.
Whether the outcomes are to our liking is secondary. The answer to the question if the issue is worth pursuing is a resounding YES !
There is nothing insulating HN from being a home for some particular conspiracy theory anymore than other sites. The willingness of some comments in this thread to just absolutely push the 'lab' narrative despite admitting the lack of evidence is deeply troubling.
Probably because the very self-assure ''debunking'' of lab-origin was pushed so hard in so much of the media for the past year.
a report that is highly circumstantial but implies a certain inference
from a foreign intelligence agency that says it 'needs further investigation'
provided to a historically right wing publication
when in contrast the people who do this for a living have consistently had exactly the same line: we need to investigate the cause, the evidence we have suggests one thing, and this theory that keeps getting pushed is scientifically without evidence
Because it validates a certain worldview. "I need things to be this way, or else the universe is wrong."
Next you’re gonna tell me that really was Hunter Biden’s laptop...
FWIW I made this HN account a year ago to post an article about the lab leak theory. I couldn’t use my main account because it was so obviously wrongthink at the time.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/hunter-biden-laptop-could-...
I assume you saw Yuri’s paper?
Why? Ebola, HIV (and others, I'm sure) originate in wild animals used as food. It's a perfectly reasonable explanation.
> Importantly, the intelligence community still does not know what the researchers were actually sick with...
I suspect most organizations of this size see cold/flu cases - i.e. similar symptoms to mild-to-moderate COVID - in winter every year.
In China, "hospital care" might just mean the clinics at the hospital. Even in the west, I know family doctor units that are based at the hospital and that's where you'd go for regular stuff.
And have to be hospitalized?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
An organization with a few thousands staffers? Sure. (800k out of 300M Americans would be ~0.3% per year.)
Edit: parent comment has changed so much my comment is no longer in context :(
http://institute.wuhanvirology.org/About_Us/Brief_Introducti...
If their average age was around 50 to 64, then we'd expect around 155.1/1e5*266 ~= 0.4 hospitalizations within the entire flu season, not just within one month.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127795/influenza-us-hos...
This is a silly assertion. Precautions are taken against the viruses being studied in the labs themselves - gloves, hoods, special suits if you're working with something like Ebola - but when you go to the cafeteria or visit someone's office, it's unlikely people were masking or distancing etc. pre-COVID.
Colds/flus likely spread like they do at any other workplace.
If Chinese state actors are culpable for the pandemic, it seems plausible other nations will seek damages from the Chinese government. If not paid, they may levy fines on commerce from Chinese companies.
However, I'm still very skeptical of "lab leak", I think the zoonotic origin is most likely. If the zoonotic origin resulted from poorly regulated wet markets, however, Covid is just as much a result of bad government policy by China as in the lab leak case.
China needs to convince the world that they have taken steps which will prevent Covid from ever happening again. At a minimum, this includes tightly regulating wet markets so that animals will be "socially distanced" with good ventilation, if not banning wet markets altogether. If China is unwilling to do this, they present an ongoing pandemic risk, and it seems reasonable for the rest of the world to restrict travel to China until they comply.
The US had sponsored virus research in Wuhan's lab possibly including "gain of function". If COVID leaked from that lab it could make the US culpable as well.
Even the developing countries who benefit from Chinese investment could benefit from this, because if the financial pain is high enough, they may have more leverage to renegotiate the terms of repayment.
I would not call that irrelevant in the slightest.
Further reading here: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/18/1021030/coronavi...
It calls into question the entire premise of this sort of research. If the risk of accidental release in the course of this research is greater than the risk of a natural pandemic, then the research should be discontinued. Of course anybody who is involved in this sort of research has a strong personal incentive to discourage such lines of thought, since it could end their careers.
Well yeah, and those safety protocols could've prevented the pandemic. You're arguing this isn't important? This could prevent the next black plague, regardless of whether it was released intentionally or not (I do not believe it was released intentionally, my point is that's irrelevant to this discussion of public safety).
Unfortunately, while (2) is still true, the majority of the news coverage is around (1).
If it truly passed from a bat/pangolin/chicken, etc we can begin to deal with the sources of that vector.
This truly is a serious question that must be resolved.
of course it's actually meaningless. the actual crime was the cover up that occurred after the virus was on the loose, delaying preparations and making containment impossible. we already know that happened
As a hypothetical let's assume this disease was created, enhanced, released and let's even say all of this was done deliberately with malice of forethought.
Doesn't alter a thing - our collective response was 'C-'
Media attention == media sales
Well... that is how I see it.
A reasonable look at this particular claim and the history of similar types of claims: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/13965771532323799...
Everyone commenting on this post is acting immediately as if this report is 100% true, but the reality is that we know very little about the report.
Government sources shouldn't be trusted without documentary evidence because they have clear alternative motivations.
There. That may be the whole thing. This is non news.