Eternally five years away? No, batteries are improving under your nose
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
It's not about some new breakthrough to make batteries as cheap or energy dense as gas, it's a steady YoY improvement and steady decline in prices.
Lithium batteries where developed in the 70's didn't get released until the 90's and has steadily improved since then with a big cost decline in the last few years.
They are currently up around 300 wh/kg with a theoretical peak of around 2600 wh/kg with sulfur cathodes there is still plenty of headroom for further improvement. At around 2000 wh/kg it roughly equivalent to a diesel drivetrain power density if my math is right.
Patents last for 20 years.
As a result, 'Second Sourcing' was more frequent, and while Intel and AMD had some Cross Licensing before x86, the main reason the agreement expanded to include x86 was because IBM was still requiring Second Sources in the 80s.
I know at one point, Chevron had it's tentacles on some NIMH patents via their control of Ovonics. Not sure if there are/were any similar situations for Lithium Ion technology.
Also the price fixing done by Lithium companies between 2000-2011. That likely hampered adoption and perhaps improvements.
They basically explained that they were betting the company on a "Moore's Law" of batteries. The presentation included a graph of battery capacity doubling every 7 years.
It let people predict the future 2 or 4 or 10 years out, from the conservative people in charge of finances to the wildcats who are creating new technology that will need something cheap or fast or just viable to match up with when they ship.
You still need to account for the discharge efficiency of the battery (which I cannot find numbers for).
For overall energy usage, electric still still has whatever inefficiencies exist in the generator (and charging inefficiency), but those don't effect power density
Transmission costs probably eat a bigger portion of EV total efficiency. Those depend on how far you are from your power source and what voltage your power is transmitted at.
That said, a thing EVs do that ICEs can't is accept power from any source. That means that only a fraction of the fuel is actually generated from a fossil fuel.
One other thing to consider is that as power density goes up for batteries, the amount of required batteries go down, ultimately reducing vehicle weight and improving range.
Assuming batteries were ever 10x their current power density, you'd probably not see cars with 10x range, rather, you'd see something like 400mile range cars with the same total power capacity of yesteryear cars. Pretty much all because you've cut the pack weight down by 1/10th (probably less because you need a lot less infrastructure around maintaining temperature for 1/10th the number of batteries).
Same with electrical generation with generators or whatever. One of the best things about BEV even if run off fossil fuels is that power plants don't care to much about space or weight, they can do multiple levels of heat recovery and whatever emissions controls and get higher thermal efficiency with lower emissions and all that complicated gear is not being carried around in your car nor maintained by you. On top of that now you are decoupled from energy source so changing fuel oil to natural gas or mixing solar, wind or nuclear doesn't change your vehicle.
You have to watch it with fuel energy density since it normally doesn't take into account the efficiencies of converting it to useful work and the equipment weight needed, its just the heat energy released when burned. Electrons probably have a really high wh/kg.
A battery has power leads coming out of it to give you electricity and modern electric motors are above 90% efficiency at converting to mechanical energy.
Diesel needs fuel tanks and a heavy engine and more complicated and heavy transmission as well. The engine itself is probably under 40% efficient at converting those MJ to horsepower.
Same goes for fuel cells they are similar in efficiency to ICE and have weight and say with hydrogen storage you need heavy tanks and protective structure to hold safely. Also with hydrogen it has low volumetric density so even though it has good MJ/kg it has low MJ/L relative to say Diesel. All current fuel cell cars are similar in weight to a BEV and seem to have just a slight range advantage with big power disadvantage. Now look at the efficiency of creating hydrogen at I am very skeptical of it becoming mainstream anytime soon.
I think if batteries energy density increases by 50% the weight penalty goes away.
Just have to figure out how to keep it safe.
If we had grids with 80% renewables you can start thinking about grid storage but right now it doesn't matter that much.
Different technologies are just different. Improvements to batteries will make them a little better at being dropped in as a gasoline replacement, but exponentially better at use cases designed with the lifecycles and energy densities that batteries can comfortably support.
Often so much that it makes the jump to the new technology not worth it.