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Comment by stephenhuey | Hacker News Reader

That definitely happens to me. Additional thoughts go through a pro player’s head during penalty kicks. 11 years ago I was fascinated by a short Freakonomics podcast. The data shows that the best chance of scoring is to kick it straight down the center to the keeper. However, most people won’t do this even though their odds are better since the pain of kicking it to a keeper who does not dive to the side and instead catches your ball is far greater than not scoring!

https://freakonomics.com/2010/06/14/what-to-do-with-your-pen...

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> the best chance of scoring is to kick it straight down the center to the keeper.

it's called "panenka" after a player that used to do this in high-stakes games to rub it in. You have to fake your run-up well - otherwise good keepers will notice the difference in run-up and make you look like an idiot [1]

I don't think it's the best chance. Panenkas are about 50-50 and normal penalties are about 70%-30%. And most of that 30% is missing the goal completely. If you go hard either side and don't miss the goal it's almost 100% no matter if the keeper dives the right way.

Then there are strikers like Lewandowski who wait for keeper to decide and go the other way [2]. This is all about developing a subconscious routine and doing it mechanically without thinking. You have no time to consciously process the data and choose the other side.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWBBlpyDfUI [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrXoQKmZui8

While I don't have the stats to back the latter part up, the expected goal (xG) from a penalty kick is .76 - 76% of penalties end up being scored. Keepers quite often will guess right, and at that point both the placement and power have to be perfect. If they are, it's a goal practically every time, but most players will compromise on either placement or power.

This may be different in recreational contexts, as professional keepers dive frighteningly quickly, and are very good at reading the body language of the PK taker.

A Panenka is a specific type of penalty through the center. It's a sort of chip/scoop shot and it goes really slow. It makes the keeper look foolish if it comes off. But it's slow enough that even a keeper diving to one side has a chance to recover, as seen in the video you shared.

But there's also the option of taking a normal run-up and blasting it straight down the middle. No keeper is going to be able read that since there's nothing to disguise. And if they dive, it's going too fast for the keeper to recover and save.

The keeper is biased toward action. If they just stand in the center and don't dive they'll be blamed for not even trying. So a hard, fast penalty down the center has pretty good odds of succeeding.

Am I right to say that keepers do a "split step" landing when they see a kick toward them is immenent (which a penalty shot certainly is)?—just as tennis players must do.

For the uninitiated, a split-step "hop" allows the defender to be uncommitted at the instant of your opponents strike; it provides an equal capacity to move any particular direction, as momentum is removed from the equation.

They usually step forward, and not a true split step. The thing is, if you watch slow motion of penalty kicks (and I remember there was some kind of study) goalkeepers actually have to start moving before the player kicks the ball or it is pretty much impossible to reach most balls (except the ones to the center). You can see they move forward with one leg (sometimes by more than one meter) with the decision of which side already taken.

Scientific studies also show that "rock" is the best throw in rock-paper-scissor*. Always shooting center is as ridiculous as always throwing "rock".

* Rock and scissor are both thrown at 35%, with paper at 29.6%. The article suggests throwing paper to exploit that, but that makes no sense, since you will win 35% lose 35% and draw 29.6%. Rock on the other hand wins at 35%, draw 35% and lose 29.6% https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-blame-game/20150...

In a one time throw against a complete stranger, okay. But your friends will notice that you always throw rock, and you start to lose 100% of the time.

Also, if people started doing that, soon it would work no more

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