It might be worth rethinking your notions of 'long term'.
Typically, there's a kind of time dilation where things that have happened recently seem both historically normal and of a longer duration than they really are.
Typically, there's a kind of time dilation where things that have happened recently seem both historically normal and of a longer duration than they really are.
In the sense that any modern trend (let's say 1920-2020) isn't old enough to really compare to something that's truly long term. It's to early to say. That, and we all have to deal with Historian's Fallacy.
I also have to say that I think that most of the Earth's land surface has more value as real estate (above and below ground) than it has as some sort of tech/people stack.
I freely admit that German is less likely to invade France (or France to invade Germany or Russia or Russia or Italy for that matter) in the modern era...assuming that wars are fought for purely profit-seeking motives.