One thing you're not accounting for is that companies normally plan for growth--whether or not that ends up happening. I expect a lot of companies that were likely exploring real estate expansion pre-pandemic have stomped on the brakes and will wait and see. So they may or may not downsize but they probably won't expand like they normally would have.

Downsizing is usually complicated and can be expensive and/or distracting.

Particularly if you don't think it will last long, I can see a bunch of companies taking a wait-and-see approach.