> Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you.
This couldn't be further from the truth. While making a prototype EV is relatively easy, yes. EV industry followers will note that the real challenge is scaling EV production, and specifically the batteries' production. You don't need to look further then to answer: 'Why don't all of these automakers have tonnes of EVs on their lots available today as we speak? Why are they all '2022 release' or even 'dozens of models in 2025'. Because all of the tier 1 and tier 2 li-ion battery supplies have already been allocated from now to several years out, and if you want 'EV model volume' scale batteries, you better be ready to fork over the capital or purchase commitment for a batttery cell production line that might not have had a shovel hitting the ground yet. And waiting a few years for assembled product.
> But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left.
Assuming both the gross margin profile and auto ownership model stay the same - sure. Tesla has proven to generate more gross margin per vehicle than other automakers as is, they have 'practically' infinite demand (stimulated by expanding geographies and targeted price reductions when demand sags). And this isn't accounting for GM expansion for vehicles that could be a part of a ride hailing network (autonomous or not).
I do believe, like other 'Tesla fans', that when factoring in their lead in scale and tech, unit cost advantage as well as how things look on a decade or two time horizon, I think it is quite likely that there will not be a better time to become a shareholder in the next 1-2 decades.
One way I look at it is by comparing it to Apple, a ~$2T market cap company in 2020 dollars. ARPU of an Apple customer compared to a Tesla customer is probably between 1/4-1/10 (how much iphone/mac/apple services does one buy versus transportation spend on an annual basis). If you project Tesla margins to look more like Apple's 10 years from now (yes, a big bet), even with similar market share breakdowns of iOS/Android today - it isn't a huge stretch to imagine with ~50-100M EVs on the roads by then - that you could have Tesla with a market cap between 10T and 20T in 2020 dollars. Particularly when factoring in their business segments beyond personal transport/light vehicles.
They are so far the only company making EVs to have crossed the 'valley of death'[See: crossing the chasm]. Startups and established automakers will need to spend billions in order to get EVs sold at scale that generate FCF per unit. It is a tall order.
(Not financial advice do your own research etc etc)
EDIT: Also note that Tesla has stated in an earnings call that they are looking at 50% CAGRs moving forward, and I do think that they could be undershooting this number a bit.