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Comment by virtuallynathan | Hacker News Reader

This is not the case with automotive fatalities, they were up in 2020. "A 24% spike in roadway death rates is highest in 96 years"

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I find this both surprising and not.

Early in the pandemic, when most everything was shut down, I had to run an errand and ended up driving down some streets I’ve driven many times before. The percentage of cars driving erratically on the road was much higher than usual.

I figure one of these might explain it:

1. People are stressed / distracted, and driving poorly because of it 2. Most drivers are well-meaning and conscientious, but most of those conscientious people were staying at home as public health officials directed, so the few people left on the road were more disproportionately less conscientious 3. Fewer cars on the road meant I noticed the bad drivers more readily

Other hypotheses?

There was fewer pull overs by law enforcement on the roads because of risk of covid spread, at least initially.

Drug and alcohol use is up, due to lack of entertainment outside the home, and that affects driving as well. More speeding or racing for thrill seeking as a result of boredom.

Many new drivers for Amazon Prime, Uber Eats, Fedex/USPS etc. who are under time pressure to deliver fast, which they're not used to.

There was another article posted recently which explained that suburban traffic patterns changed so there was a lot more traffic congestion in the afternoons in suburban areas, while roads such as interstates and highways had lower than normal peak traffic. Having more traffic concentrated in areas not designed for heavy traffic could explain it.

Early on in the initial outbreak, I also noticed what sometimes felt like lawless driving in comparison to before.

For example, people treating a red light as a four way stop, or just slowing down and running through it.

It didn't last very long as far as I observed, but it definitely was a thing in Portland.

At the time I thought it was because there were so few cars on the road. Your point, 2. seems like a solid explanation to me.

In some cases it wasn't just that drivers were "not as conscientious," but more actively taking advantage of a lower amount of vehicles and LE patrol.

There is some evidence of this from the multiple record-breaking Cannonball Run challenges performed in May and June 2020 with no new records recorded since. [1]

Another explanation is that well-meaning drivers were treating urban driving the way folks do out in rural areas, where stop signs are sort of followed "as appropriate" by locals.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannonball_Run_challenge#Durin...

There was a global 24% spike in roadway deaths? I find that hard to believe. Please provide evidence. In my country we saw a 10% reduction in road deaths through 2020.

GP means in the US, where there was a 24% spike in roadway deaths per miles driven. Here's some more details:

"The nonprofit National Safety Council estimates in a report issued Thursday that 42,060 people died in vehicle crashes in 2020, an 8% increase over 2019 and the first jump in four years.

Plus, the fatality rate per 100 million miles driven spiked 24%, the largest annual percentage increase since the council began collecting data in 1923."

"Motor vehicle fatality estimates are subject to slight increases and decreases as data mature. The National Safety Council uses data from the National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the CDC, so that deaths occurring within 100 days of the crash and on both public and private roadways – such as parking lots and driveways – are included in the Council’s estimates."

It's hard to figure out exactly how to credit this—perhaps the overall excess COVID deaths are being counted as part of the "100 days"? But the USA Today article quotes lots anecdotal data from state highway officials that back up this claim, including an increase in speeding tickets and an increase in crashes that involve intoxication over the same time period: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/03/05/pandemi.... The 8-9% number they quote is also backed up by Minnesota's own statistics, which I would imagine are more limited in what they consider a traffic death.

It makes sense. Cops were more reluctant to pull people over for covid safety reasons so drivers felt more emboldened speeding. The roads have been emptier so people have been going faster than norma, whether above or below the speed limit. Lack of other social entertainment may have caused thrill seeking in the form or speeding or racing, especially since drug and alcohol use seems to have gone up as well for the same reasons.

"Cops were more reluctant to pull people over for covid safety reasons so drivers felt more emboldened speeding"

Is this true? The rest of the possible explanations you cite make sense, but the USA Today article I cited earlier contains a quote from the Minnesota traffic safety department saying that the number of speeding tickets handed out went up in 2020, almost 100% (from 500 tickets in 2019 to 1,068 in 2020).

He should have specified that, because we're talking global here.

A 24% spike in the US is absolutely insane.

Remember, the 24% number is "deaths per miles driven", so it has 2 (potentially related) trends driving it: much fewer miles driven and more accidents overall.

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