If they are banned in Europe, the new service will be pay to use in order to generate revenue. In which case, nobody outside Europe would use it. In which case, barely anyone inside Europe would use it.
Facebook knows this, and likely Germany knows this. So, they're really deciding whether they want Facebook or any Facebook like site to exist in Germany. I would be very surprised if Facebook lost this battle.
If you think I'm incorrect, just realize that the only way china was able to get their citizens off of Facebook was to block them entirely. And even then, nobody outside china cares to use their social media platforms.