This is more of an assumption about why people aren't returning tot work. Reality is a lot more complicated: kids can't go to school; low paying jobs are even more shitty now than before; people are still refusing to wear masks and some get violent if you ask them to; employers are doing the minimum necessary to meet code; etc. So this isn't exactly an ideal test environment.

Since some states are cutting back benefits, we get to see a live experiment. If employment numbers go up in these states, then that might be a correct assumption. But there's a real chance that employment remains low.

Labor shortages were an issue before the pandemic. Society just cheered because we called it "low unemployment."