But my logic to this is;
1) People need to consider the government, they make billions from domestic currency plus use it as a key tool to control the economy. Once these 2 facets are being affected do you think the government will not have resistance? Maybe not if its pervaded into society and has political backlash but there has to be political pushback at some point as govt will not want to let these go. For example some people say Libya war was in part over Gadhafi trying to move away from the dollar to a Afro-dollar
2) My understanding is bitcoin is limited by choice and not absolute. Bitcoins protocol can be updated and as time goes on there will likely be pressure to do so, and with this comes rise as if the wrong decisions are made it could be bad.
3) Crime and terrorism will likely take away the anonymity benefit. Like this recent oil pipeline hack, they wanted bitcoin payment. Once it gets linked more to terrorism, fraud and crimes like paedophile rings there is going to be huge pressure to regulate away the anonymity so its likely another benefit will evaporate.
4) Generally I dont see much consumer use or growth in use. There are high transaction fees, capital gains implications, and a great alternative called money. So from a usge (not storage) view there is little incentive to come across to bitcoin type currency day-to-day though I respect this one can quickly change but at the moment its more speculative value for store of wealth backs by the hope of scarcity, but as mentioned that's not absolute.
5) There is a lack of protection. If I get scammed online my credit card deals with it, or if I have shares/property there are legal systems to ensure ownership stays with me but crypto, do the wrong thing, or join the wrong exchange, you may find its all gone one day and that carries huge risk which now offers huge reward but once growth slows do you want to carry that?
Generally, as I said I dont profess to be correct and recognise I may well be telling my grandkids one day when I could have bough bitcoin @$65k and been rich now but I feel when you pull back to macro view it feels more speculative/FOMO that a product of value, to me anyway.
2) Noone involed in BTC wants to change that. The miners have control over it, but who in their love of mind would vote to increase the supply and basically devalue your savings?
3) There is no anonomity effect on BTC and never was. It is all tracable.
4) User growth? Not even 1% of the population have BTC.
5) There are custodty solutions. Or just store your BTC on a cold wallet, remember the recovery phrases and throw away your Ledger or whatever. It doesn't get more secure than that. If there is no hardware wallet, noone can access your BTC.
The Macro View IS Crypto, or part of it. With 5G and 6G, electrified cars, IoT etc., crypto is basically embedded in the digital world. Bitcoin is not crypto and is basically for Boomers, the space already moved 10x beyond Bitcoin.
Very long term it could be future money (a lot of issues need to be ironed out!) or looked on as a weird thing of the past or maybe it’ll be around forever and bubble up every now and then.