I thought there were preliminary studies showing the vaccine is effective at prevention of infection, not just in reduction of severity of symptoms. Assuming that, a good prior to hold IMO (until we have such research) would be that it also prevents long COVID. However, since I can't find where I heard this, may be smart to withhold judgement one way or the other. That being said, what the sibling commentor pointed out seems plausible also to me to put into the prior (i.e. if long COVID is correlated with serious illness, then plausibly the vaccine would also prevent long COVID by reducing the serious response in the first place)
[1] https://news.yale.edu/2021/05/10/study-determine-how-covid-1...