We'll definitely see Facebook decline but not because of any clumsy product Google offers. Facebook's decline will come from any of a number of new and as-yet-unimagined products that are focused on helping users make new social connections rather than rigidly codifying existing ones. A place for you to chat with your weed buddies, another for your gaming pals, another for your family. Something more analogous to how we socialize in reality. Google's trying this with circles but their social blindspot doesn't leave me confident they'll get anywhere. Everything they do feels contrived in this space.

Facebook has lots of a staying power, and a much better product leadership than MySpace. So that buys Facebook plenty of time. But in the end, they're too successful to risk doing anything interesting anymore.

It's possible but not probable.

Myspace at it's peak simply did not have even close to the reach and influence that facebook has currently.