Thanks for the great story.
I’d love to hear more about why the real was successful. Wikipedia makes it sound like it was just luck that Brazil had positive trade balance in the years following its introduction.
I’d love to hear more about why the real was successful. Wikipedia makes it sound like it was just luck that Brazil had positive trade balance in the years following its introduction.
Here is a text version: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/788003778
I think the problem was that Brazil got into a positive feedback loop, and we had what Wikipedia calls "inertial inflation" [1]. We got this going for so long that everybody internalized the inflation, and expected it, and behaved as it was a foregone conclusion that there was going to be inflation next month. So it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I see the plan ("Plano Real" [2]) to break it as a social engineering hack. They realized, after so many failed attempts, that in order to succeed you had to change people's minds and make them see the price of goods/services/contracts as stable, which would also change their habits and expectations. Remember there was a generation of people, including myself, who lived their entire lives under high inflation so they didn't know anything else.
So what the government did was to create an index, called URV ("unidade real the valor" = "real value unit"), and mandated that all salaries/prices/contracts/etc. should be indexed against this particular index (and not any other index, or the dollar). Everything should be advertised in URVs. The government would publish, every day, the "price" of 1 URV in what it was the currency back then (cruzeiros reais). So when money actually changed hands, you would pay in cruzeiros reais the quoted amount of URVs using that day's URV price. The URV was roughly tracking the USD, which gave confidence to everybody that the index was "fair" and not losing value.
This went on for a year. And it actually worked: everybody started thinking in URVs instead of cruzeiros reais. All prices became stable in URVs. And then in 1994 they introduced a new currency, the real, where 1 real = price of 1 URV. And inflation suddenly dropped from ~50% a month to ~2% a month. Still high but a miracle to us compared to how it was before. (Eventually it dropped to less than 10% a year.)
So they basically "de-indexed" the economy (and people's minds), killing the positive feedback loop and the hyper-inflation. This was such a life-changer for Brazilians that the economy minister during Plano Real, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (the public face of this plan, even though he wasn't the author), ended up being the next president.
There are a few articles that may be a good summary as well: [3][4]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_inflation
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real
[3] https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-...
This blew up in 1999 with the depletion of internal USD reserves.