“If you liked “How to build a blog in 15 minutes with Rails,” check out the sequel, ‘How to destroy Rails in 15 minutes with a blog.’”(From https://twitter.com/sandofsky/status/1388174804985868289 )
(I realize that there's always the possibility that this post could age like milk, and everyone might be pointing at laughing at me in 5 years. But that's also pretty much true for any piece of technology, and not unique to Rails' current situation.)
Despite people claiming "Rails is dead!" for the past 10 years, it's continued to be huge at pretty much all levels of development (introductory, hobbyist, contract work, startups, small, mid, and large size companies). I don't really see this changing that significantly.
If we start to see an exodus off of Rails in the next few years from the big players like GitHub, then I'll start to get worried.
https://twitter.com/georgeclaghorn/status/138813100953171968...
https://twitter.com/sstephenson/status/1388146129284603906
I agree with you, and I wouldn't be that surprised to see this manifest as a Rails fork.
I think what might happen is one of the other big players in the Rails ecosystem, like GitHub, might begin taking a larger role in the development and leadership of Rails.