if youtube, google, twitter, facebook etc. can directly access the chinese market, their local counterparts will not survive and that's a massive opportunity.
The friction of using VPN is not much higher than getting an internet connection in the first place: some initial setup and then keep paying for your subscription.
> if youtube, google, twitter, facebook etc. can directly access the chinese market, their local counterparts will not survive
That's assuming those services are obviously better, so that people will switch. Otherwise, everyone will keep using what they're familiar with.
YouTube is freely available in Japan, but that hasn't killed Niconico. WhatsApp is freely available in Korea, but KakaoTalk remains king. Bing is freely available in China (albeit censored) but half a dozen Chinese search engines keep sticking around.
The globally dominant tech companies got where they are today by being the fastest to introduce users to a novel product, but there are plenty of local markets where a competitor was faster. Now that those products aren't revolutionary anymore, there won't be any rapid changes in market share, only slow shifts. (Consider Chrome vs. Firefox: Chrome has more users, but Firefox is only declining very slowly.)
fees are the most expensive friction point on the internet
> That's assuming those services are obviously better, so that people will switch. Otherwise, everyone will keep using what they're familiar with.
agreed and sadly we'll never know because the CCP is censoring the ability to compete.