> People just desperately want to find evidence that the stuff we did this year made a huge difference.

I don't think that's true at all. People have been receptive to the increased evidence that transmission on surfaces is pretty unlikely, for example, despite all the efforts we've put into sanitizing surfaces.

I think most people can appreciate that all the shit we threw at the wall throughout the pandemic eventually comes down to how much effort it is vs how much benefit we get from it. And our understanding of each measure has changed over time. We now know, generally:

Masks indoors are low-effort, medium reward. Masks outdoors are low-effort, low reward.

Cleaning surfaces is medium-effort, low reward.

Staying home is (economically, societally) high-effort, high reward.