> If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

Viruses are not identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus

> They are lytic in nature and are among the smallest viruses, with diameters of about 30 nanometers. By comparison, other viruses, such as smallpox and vaccinia, are around ten times larger at about 300 nanometers, while flu viruses are around 80–120 nm.

Different virus sizes, different mask effectiveness.

Anecdotally, my kids are in middle school, and every winter we get several colds. None this year.