But wouldn’t we see them if they were here?
It’s called space for a reason. It’s hard for the human mind to wrap itself around just how vast even our own solar system is, how many solid bodies there are, etc.
If they maintained relative radio quiet and used only directional signals or lasers you could hide a sizable alien settlement in our solar system and we’d be unlikely to find it unless we got lucky. Space is just so damn big.
SETI has checked a few grains of sand on the beach and found nothing and you now have people making tortured arguments about the Fermi paradox and great filters.
We have barely looked, and given things like Project Orion we ought to pay more attention to our own cosmic back yard. The percentage of even our own solar system we have explored is miniscule.
The most famous example (the one Musk was asked about) occurred when Navy pilots reported a craft resembling a Tic Tac that was moving unlike anything seen in the U.S. arsenal: They said it “wasn’t behaving by the normal laws of physics.”
The craft’s movements were, however, typical of both military and civilian UFO reports: Descending from 80,000 feet to 20,000 feet in an instant; stopping in midair and reversing direction without inertial effects; exceeding the speed of sound without generating a sonic boom; and submerging into the ocean
Minor quibble, ball lightning is occasionally classified as an Unidentified Flying Object, before it's identified as ball lightning.
The big problem here is with language. The military takes UFOs seriously because they're seriously interested in identifying things before deciding if they need to shoot them.
But then when the general public hears "the military takes UFOs seriously," many are operating with the "UFOs are definitely alien aircraft" interpretation.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3viYcYPRdu4
Why the military plays up scientifically illiterate interpretations of these videos is beyond me, and a much more interesting question frankly.
At speeds close to the speed of light a human could travel to the wedge of the known _universe_ in a lifetime.