I don't see the connection.
Of course there is a ceiling which any product maker will hit eventually, but the OP made a prediction that Tesla could become the worlds biggest car manufacturer and the response to that was to label this an "idiotic analyses".
This reminds me of how Ballmer was laughing at Apple and literally 12 months later Apple was the leading smartphone maker and has been the most successful smartphone company to date and the first company in human history to even cross the 1 trillion valuation mark. So yeah... I wouldn't write off Tesla as becoming the largest car manufacturer in the near future and certainly not call it an idiotic analyses.
Do you see it now?
In any case, issue with Tesla is that's it's priced to just not be the leader, but the whole car market and then some.
If there are already trends that other car manufacturers area outselling Tesla, clearly trajectory is not towards even market lead.